# MLB Strikeout Props Today (May 3, 2026) — Best Pitcher K Picks > MLB strikeout prop picks for May 3, 2026 - Chase Burns leads the board across 15 games. 6-factor scoring model ranks pitchers by K likelihood. **Date:** 2026-05-03 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Strikeouts, Pitcher Props, K Props, Daily Picks, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-strikeout-picks-may-3-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB strikeout prop picks for Sunday, May 3, 2026** are Chase Burns (Score: 73 — 10.32 K/9, 34.1% whiff rate), Jesús Luzardo (Score: 70 — 10.82 K/9, 33.1% whiff rate), Braxton Ashcraft (Score: 69 — 10.32 K/9, 30.8% whiff rate). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 6-factor pitcher K scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Strikeout Props Today — May 3, 2026 26 pitchers, 15 games. Here's where the strikeout stuff and matchup align. > [Pitching Stats Dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats) — full pitcher arsenals and K metrics for every starter. > **Yesterday's K picks:** [MLB Strikeout Picks - May 2](/blog/mlb-strikeout-picks-may-2-2026) ## Today's Slate - TOR @ MIN (Trey Yesavage vs Joe Ryan) - 12:45 PM ET - HOU @ BOS (Cody Bolton vs Ranger Suarez) - 1:35 PM ET - CIN @ PIT (Chase Burns vs Braxton Ashcraft) - 1:35 PM ET - BAL @ NYY (Trey Gibson vs Max Fried) - 1:35 PM ET - MIL @ WSH (TBD vs Zack Littell) - 1:35 PM ET - SF @ TB (Tyler Mahle vs Steven Matz) - 1:40 PM ET - PHI @ MIA (Jesús Luzardo vs Chris Paddack) - 1:40 PM ET - LAD @ STL (Justin Wrobleski vs Dustin May) - 2:15 PM ET - AZ @ CHC (Merrill Kelly vs Matthew Boyd) - 2:20 PM ET - ATL @ COL (Spencer Strider vs Kyle Freeland) - 3:10 PM ET - CLE @ ATH (Parker Messick vs Aaron Civale) - 4:05 PM ET - NYM @ LAA (Clay Holmes vs Jack Kochanowicz) - 4:07 PM ET - KC @ SEA (Kris Bubic vs Luis Castillo) - 4:10 PM ET - CWS @ SD (Anthony Kay vs Griffin Canning) - 4:10 PM ET - TEX @ DET (Jack Leiter vs Tyler Holton) - 7:20 PM ET ## Pick 1: Chase Burns — CIN vs PIT RHP | 39 K on season | PNC Park *39 K · 10.32 K/9 · 34.1% whiff · 2.65 ERA · 1.12 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate* **Top K play tonight.** When swings result in whiffs at this rate (34.1%), Ks follow. Chase Burns brings exactly that profile against PIT. The slider (48.6% whiff) is the put-away offering when he needs it. The 10.32 K/9 is the season-long anchor. > **Dig deeper into pitcher arsenals** on the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats) — see pitch mix, whiff rates, and velocity for every starter. ## Pick 2: Jesús Luzardo — PHI vs MIA LHP | 41 K on season | loanDepot park *41 K · 10.82 K/9 · 33.1% whiff · 5.50 ERA · 1.28 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate* Jesús Luzardo runs a elite 33.1% whiff rate (90th+ percentile). Swing-and-miss stuff is the foundation of strikeout production, and his is the foundation of tonight's lean. The sweeper (49.4% whiff) is the put-away offering when he needs it. The 10.82 K/9 is the season-long anchor. One concern: 5.50 ERA. A rough early inning can pull him before he stacks Ks, so this is a top-of-game prop more than a deep one. ## Pick 3: Braxton Ashcraft — PIT vs CIN RHP | 39 K on season | PNC Park *39 K · 10.32 K/9 · 30.8% whiff · 3.71 ERA · 1.15 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate* Whiff rate matters more than K/9 over short windows, and Braxton Ashcraft's elite 30.8% whiff rate (90th+ percentile) is the strongest signal on the slate. CIN is the canvas. The curveball (48.4% whiff) is the put-away offering when he needs it. The 10.32 K/9 is the season-long anchor. ## Honorable Mentions - **Parker Messick** (CLE) vs ATH — 9.47 K/9, 25.5% whiff, 1.73 ERA, 38 K - **Kris Bubic** (KC) vs SEA — 9.49 K/9, 29.9% whiff, 3.74 ERA, 35 K - **Joe Ryan** (MIN) vs TOR — 9.21 K/9, 24.1% whiff, 3.76 ERA, 39 K ## Related Guides - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) ## Before You Lock Check the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats) for full arsenal breakdowns and the [Hitting Stats page](/mlb/hitting-stats) for pitch mix analysis showing which lineups are most vulnerable to certain pitch types. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting — a bullpen game changes everything. K/9 and whiff rate together are the strongest predictors of strikeout volume. Our strikeout model scores probable starters across 6 factors — K/9, whiff rate, opposing team K tendency, pitcher quality, workload pace, and venue. Full pitcher profiles on the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Pitching Stats Dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats) — pitcher arsenals, K rates, and advanced metrics - [Hitting Stats Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) — batter K vulnerability and pitch mix analysis - [Dinger Picks Today](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-3-2026) — Statcast-driven home run picks - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-3-2026) — no run first inning best bets *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Strikeout Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-strikeout-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*