# MLB Strikeout Props Today (July 5, 2026): Best Pitcher K Picks > MLB strikeout prop picks for July 5, 2026: Joe Ryan leads the board across 15 games. Six factor scoring model ranks pitchers by K likelihood. **Date:** 2026-07-05 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Strikeouts, Pitcher Props, K Props, Daily Picks, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-strikeout-picks-jul-5-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB strikeout prop picks for Sunday, July 5, 2026** are Joe Ryan (Score: 79, 10.47 K/9, 26.1% whiff rate), Nolan McLean (Score: 79, 10.69 K/9, 25.4% whiff rate), Casey Mize (Score: 76, 9.42 K/9, 29.2% whiff rate). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's six factor pitcher K scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Strikeout Props Today: July 5, 2026 30 pitchers, 15 games. Here's where the strikeout stuff and matchup align. > [Pitching Stats Dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats): full pitcher arsenals and K metrics for every starter. > **Yesterday's K picks:** [MLB Strikeout Picks: July 4](/blog/mlb-strikeout-picks-jul-4-2026) ## Today's Slate - NYM at ATL (Nolan McLean vs Martín Pérez), 12:30 PM ET - PIT at WSH (Bubba Chandler vs Cade Cavalli), 1:00 PM ET - BAL at CIN (Kyle Bradish vs Nick Lodolo), 1:05 PM ET - MIN at NYY (Joe Ryan vs Ryan Weathers), 1:35 PM ET - CWS at CLE (Chris Murphy vs Tanner Bibee), 2:00 PM ET - STL at CHC (Matthew Liberatore vs Javier Assad), 2:30 PM ET - PHI at KC (Aaron Nola vs Luinder Avila), 3:00 PM ET - TB at HOU (Griffin Jax vs Peter Lambert), 3:30 PM ET - DET at TEX (Casey Mize vs Kumar Rocker), 3:30 PM ET - SF at COL (Tyler Mahle vs Tanner Gordon), 4:00 PM ET - MIL at AZ (Brandon Sproat vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 4:00 PM ET - MIA at ATH (Eury Pérez vs Gage Jump), 4:30 PM ET - TOR at SEA (Trey Yesavage vs Emerson Hancock), 5:00 PM ET - SD at LAD (JP Sears vs Emmet Sheehan), 7:20 PM ET - BOS at LAA (Ranger Suarez vs Ryan Johnson), 9:30 PM ET ## Pick 1: Joe Ryan, MIN vs NYY RHP | 113 K on season | Yankee Stadium *113 K · 10.47 K/9 · 26.1% whiff · 3.61 ERA · 1.08 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate* **Top K play tonight.** 10.47 K/9 is among the best in the game. Joe Ryan faces NYY tonight, and if the strike zone cooperates, the K total piles up fast. The 26.1% whiff rate underneath confirms the stuff is real, not BABIP fueled. The sweeper (35.4% whiff) is the put away offering when he needs it. Lock Joe Ryan for the strikeout over. > **Dig deeper into pitcher arsenals** on the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats): see pitch mix, whiff rates, and velocity for every starter. ## Pick 2: Nolan McLean, NYM vs ATL RHP | 113 K on season | Truist Park *113 K · 10.69 K/9 · 25.4% whiff · 3.78 ERA · 1.12 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate* Nolan McLean's 10.69 K/9 puts him in elite strikeout territory, the kind of arm that punches out a batter every nine pitches he's in the game. Tonight against ATL he keeps adding to the season total. The 25.4% whiff rate underneath confirms the stuff is real, not BABIP fueled. The curveball (40.4% whiff) is the put away offering when he needs it. Nolan McLean is the K play I trust most in this spot. ## Pick 3: Casey Mize, DET vs TEX RHP | 68 K on season | Globe Life Field *68 K · 9.42 K/9 · 29.2% whiff · 2.63 ERA · 0.97 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate* Casey Mize's split-finger is a put away pitch, a 36.1% whiff rate on the season. He throws it 25% of the time, which means TEX's hitters see it constantly. The 29.2% whiff rate underneath confirms the stuff is real, not BABIP fueled. The 9.42 K/9 is the season long anchor. Ride Casey Mize to clear his K number. ## Honorable Mentions - **Eury Pérez** (MIA) vs ATH: 10.10 K/9, 29.0% whiff, 4.21 ERA, 81 K - **Ryan Weathers** (NYY) vs MIN: 10.01 K/9, 26.7% whiff, 4.08 ERA, 98 K - **Emmet Sheehan** (LAD) vs SD: 10.10 K/9, 30.8% whiff, 5.08 ERA, 81 K ## Related Guides - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) ## Before You Lock Check the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats) for full arsenal breakdowns and the [Hitting Stats page](/mlb/hitting-stats) for pitch mix analysis showing which lineups are most vulnerable to certain pitch types. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, because a bullpen game changes everything. K/9 and whiff rate together are the strongest predictors of strikeout volume. Our strikeout model scores probable starters across 6 factors: K/9, whiff rate, opposing team K tendency, pitcher quality, workload pace, and venue. Full pitcher profiles on the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Pitching Stats Dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats): pitcher arsenals, K rates, and advanced metrics - [Hitting Stats Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): batter K vulnerability and pitch mix analysis - [Dinger Picks Today](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-5-2026): Statcast driven home run picks - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-5-2026): no run first inning best bets *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Strikeout Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-strikeout-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*