# MLB Strikeout Props: August 14, 2026 (Pitcher K Picks)

> Best MLB K props today: Gavin Williams tops our six factor model across 14 games. Whiff rates, K/9, and opposing team K tendency scored. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-08-14  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Strikeouts, Pitcher Props, K Props, Daily Picks, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-strikeout-picks-aug-14-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB strikeout prop picks for Friday, August 14, 2026** are Gavin Williams (Score: 81, 11.55 K/9, 31.2% whiff rate), Chris Sale (Score: 78, 11.05 K/9, 30.7% whiff rate), Chase Burns (Score: 75, 10.38 K/9, 31.7% whiff rate). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's six factor pitcher K scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Strikeout Props Today: August 14, 2026

Best K prop plays from today's 14 game slate. 28 starters evaluated on whiff rate, K/9, and opposing lineup.

> [Pitching Stats Dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats): full pitcher arsenals and K metrics for every starter.

> **Yesterday's K picks:** [MLB Strikeout Picks: August 13](/blog/mlb-strikeout-picks-aug-13-2026)

## Today's Slate

- STL at CHC (Matthew Liberatore vs Clay Holmes), 2:20 PM ET
- MIA at CIN (Sandy Alcantara vs Chase Burns), 6:10 PM ET
- BOS at PIT (Jake Bennett vs Bubba Chandler), 6:40 PM ET
- CWS at DET (Sean Newcomb vs Jackson Jobe), 6:40 PM ET
- WSH at NYM (Andrew Alvarez vs Robert Stock), 7:10 PM ET
- SD at CLE (Michael King vs Gavin Williams), 7:10 PM ET
- BAL at TB (Kyle Bradish vs Steven Matz), 7:10 PM ET
- AZ at ATL (Brandon Pfaadt vs Chris Sale), 7:15 PM ET
- NYY at TOR (Gerrit Cole vs Shane Bieber), 7:15 PM ET
- SEA at HOU (George Kirby vs Peter Lambert), 8:10 PM ET
- KC at LAA (Seth Lugo vs Grayson Rodriguez), 9:38 PM ET
- TEX at ATH (Kumar Rocker vs Gage Jump), 9:40 PM ET
- MIL at LAD (Robert Gasser vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto), 10:10 PM ET
- COL at SF (Kyle Freeland vs Landen Roupp), 10:15 PM ET

## Pick 1: Gavin Williams, CLE vs SD

RHP | 185 K on season | Progressive Field

*185 K · 11.55 K/9 · 31.2% whiff · 3.55 ERA · 1.04 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate*

**Top K play tonight.** Gavin Williams's 11.55 K/9 puts him in elite strikeout territory, the kind of arm that punches out a batter every nine pitches he's in the game. Tonight against SD he keeps adding to the season total.

The 31.2% whiff rate underneath confirms the stuff is real, not BABIP fueled. The sweeper (43.1% whiff) is the put away offering when he needs it. Lock Gavin Williams for the strikeout over.

> **Dig deeper into pitcher arsenals** on the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats): see pitch mix, whiff rates, and velocity for every starter.

## Pick 2: Chris Sale, ATL vs AZ

LHP | 151 K on season | Truist Park

*151 K · 11.05 K/9 · 30.7% whiff · 2.20 ERA · 1.02 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate*

When the K/9 is 11.05, the projection writes itself. Chris Sale is a strikeout artist by trade, and AZ's lineup is the next set of victims.

The 30.7% whiff rate underneath confirms the stuff is real, not BABIP fueled. The slider (38.7% whiff) is the put away offering when he needs it. Chris Sale is the K play I trust most in this spot.

## Pick 3: Chase Burns, CIN vs MIA

RHP | 143 K on season | Great American Ball Park

*143 K · 10.38 K/9 · 31.7% whiff · 2.61 ERA · 1.12 WHIP · 22.0% opp K rate*

Chase Burns runs a elite 31.7% whiff rate (90th+ percentile). Swing and miss stuff is the foundation of strikeout production, and his is the foundation of tonight's lean.

The slider (51.6% whiff) is the put away offering when he needs it. The 10.38 K/9 is the season long anchor. Take Chase Burns over his K prop.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Gage Jump** (ATH) vs TEX: 10.47 K/9, 26.0% whiff, 4.46 ERA, 84 K
- **Yoshinobu Yamamoto** (LAD) vs MIL: 8.22 K/9, 25.8% whiff, 2.65 ERA, 127 K
- **Peter Lambert** (HOU) vs SEA: 8.83 K/9, 25.5% whiff, 3.09 ERA, 111 K

## Related Guides

- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats) for full arsenal breakdowns and the [Hitting Stats page](/mlb/hitting-stats) for pitch mix analysis showing which lineups are most vulnerable to certain pitch types. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, because a bullpen game changes everything. K/9 and whiff rate together are the strongest predictors of strikeout volume.

Our strikeout model scores probable starters across 6 factors: K/9, whiff rate, opposing team K tendency, pitcher quality, workload pace, and venue. Full pitcher profiles on the [Pitching Stats dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Pitching Stats Dashboard](/mlb/pitching-stats): pitcher arsenals, K rates, and advanced metrics
- [Hitting Stats Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): batter K vulnerability and pitch mix analysis
- [Dinger Picks Today](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-14-2026): Statcast driven home run picks
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-14-2026): no run first inning best bets

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Strikeout Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-strikeout-picks)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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