Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Wednesday, September 9, 2026 are NYM @ MIA (Score: 67, 67% NRFI probability, Robert Stock vs Janson Junk), LAA @ BOS (Score: 63, 63% NRFI probability, Ryan Johnson vs Jake Bennett), TOR @ ATH (Score: 61, 61% NRFI probability, Braydon Fisher vs Brady Basso). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 9, 2026
15 games tonight. Here are the pitching matchups most likely to keep the first inning scoreless.
NRFI Dashboard: live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm.
Yesterday's NRFI picks: MLB NRFI Bets for September 8
Tonight's Slate
- NYM at MIA (Robert Stock vs Janson Junk), 6:40 PM
- LAA at BOS (Ryan Johnson vs Jake Bennett), 6:45 PM
- TOR at ATH (Braydon Fisher vs Brady Basso), 3:05 PM
- CHC at MIL (Kevin Gausman vs Logan Henderson), 7:40 PM
- HOU at PHI (Hunter Brown vs Cristopher Sánchez), 6:40 PM
- PIT at CWS (Lake Bachar vs Davis Martin), 7:40 PM
- TB at ATL (Griffin Jax vs Reynaldo López), 7:15 PM
- AZ at KC (Zac Gallen vs Daniel Lynch IV), 7:40 PM
- STL at SF (Andre Pallante vs Blade Tidwell), 3:45 PM
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Robert Stock (RHP): 83% NRFI, 5.81 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Janson Junk (RHP): 86% NRFI, 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 12. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at loanDepot park, indoor.
Both arms walk into loanDepot park capable of a clean opening frame, Robert Stock at 83% NRFI on the year and Janson Junk at 86%, a combined 67% that ranks among the best on the board. Janson Junk is trending up as well, a 2.21 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.00 season mark. The pressure point is the New York Mets lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .755 OPS in that split, so Janson Junk cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Robert Stock's 4.5 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Ryan Johnson (RHP): 73% NRFI, 5.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Jake Bennett (LHP): 88% NRFI, 3.34 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9. First pitch 6:45 PM ET at Fenway Park (20 ft).
Jake Bennett is the reason to look here, a 88% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Ryan Johnson is the softer side at 73% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Jake Bennett's 1.6 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. It helps that the Los Angeles Angels lineup has been quiet against LHP this year at a .626 OPS, which gives Jake Bennett margin in the opening frame. The loose thread is Ryan Johnson's 4.4 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or go deeper on the NRFI dashboard.
Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics
Braydon Fisher (RHP): 100% NRFI, 3.20 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, NRFI streak of 8. Brady Basso (LHP): 50% NRFI, 4.32 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9. First pitch 3:05 PM ET at Sutter Health Park (26 ft).
Braydon Fisher is the reason to look here, a 100% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Brady Basso is the softer side at 50% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Braydon Fisher is trending up as well, a 1.73 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.20 season mark. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution.
Honorable Mentions
- Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Kevin Gausman riding a run of 5 scoreless first innings.
- Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies: Hunter Brown riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings.
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox: a combined 53% NRFI rate.
Games to Avoid
These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate.
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves. Reynaldo López is the weak link at 36% NRFI, and the combined 21% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals. Zac Gallen's 6.34 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. Leave this one alone.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants. Blade Tidwell is the weak link at 33% NRFI, and the combined 33% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Confirm the starting pitchers on the NRFI dashboard. A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds.
For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the NRFI Strategy Guide.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Live NRFI Dashboard: real time pitcher data and matchup grades
- Dinger of the Day: today's best HR picks
- MLB Streaks: pitchers and hitters on hot streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: full methodology breakdown
Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB NRFI Picks
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides