Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, September 7, 2026 are ATL @ PHI (Score: 69, 69% NRFI probability, Grant Holmes vs Jesús Luzardo), STL @ SF (Score: 62, 62% NRFI probability, Michael McGreevy vs Logan Webb), CLE @ BAL (Score: 62, 62% NRFI probability, Joey Cantillo vs Trevor Rogers). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 7, 2026
Tonight's 11 games, ranked by first inning scoreless probability.
NRFI Dashboard: live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm.
Yesterday's NRFI picks: MLB NRFI Bets for September 6
Tonight's Slate
- ATL at PHI (Grant Holmes vs Jesús Luzardo), 1:05 PM
- STL at SF (Michael McGreevy vs Logan Webb), 8:10 PM
- CLE at BAL (Joey Cantillo vs Trevor Rogers), 1:35 PM
- TOR at ATH (Dylan Cease vs Jacob Lopez), 10:05 PM
- NYM at MIA (Jonah Tong vs Eury Pérez), 1:10 PM
- WSH at SD (Jake Irvin vs Nick Pivetta), 5:10 PM
- LAA at BOS (Grayson Rodriguez vs Brayan Bello), 1:35 PM
- MIN at DET (Joe Ryan vs Troy Melton), 3:10 PM
- AZ at KC (Derek Law vs Noah Cameron), 2:10 PM
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Grant Holmes (RHP): 81% NRFI, 3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 12. Jesús Luzardo (LHP): 93% NRFI, 2.91 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 1:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park (20 ft).
Jesús Luzardo can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 11.1 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. On the other side, Grant Holmes is no pushover either at 81% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Jesús Luzardo is trending up as well, a 1.14 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.91 season mark. The pressure point is the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .758 OPS in that split, so Grant Holmes cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Michael McGreevy (RHP): 78% NRFI, 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Logan Webb (RHP): 80% NRFI, 4.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. First pitch 8:10 PM ET at Oracle Park (5 ft).
Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Michael McGreevy runs a 2.4 BB/9 and Logan Webb a 2.3 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. On the other side, Michael McGreevy is no pushover either at 78% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Logan Webb's 2.3 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or go deeper on the NRFI dashboard.
Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles
Joey Cantillo (LHP): 69% NRFI, 3.82 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 4.7 BB/9. Trevor Rogers (LHP): 88% NRFI, 4.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 17. First pitch 1:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30 ft).
Trevor Rogers is the reason to look here, a 88% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Joey Cantillo is the softer side at 69% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Trevor Rogers's 2.3 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. Worth flagging that Joey Cantillo has been touched for a run in the first in 5 straight, so the season rate is doing the arguing here, not the last month. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm.
Honorable Mentions
- Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics: a combined 59% NRFI rate.
- New York Mets at Miami Marlins: a combined 53% NRFI rate.
- Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres: Nick Pivetta riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings.
Games to Avoid
These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox. Brayan Bello is the weak link at 38% NRFI, and the combined 30% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers. Troy Melton is the weak link at 65% NRFI, and the combined 40% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals. Derek Law is the weak link at 0% NRFI, and the combined 50% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Confirm the starting pitchers on the NRFI dashboard. A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds.
For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the NRFI Strategy Guide.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Live NRFI Dashboard: real time pitcher data and matchup grades
- Dinger of the Day: today's best HR picks
- MLB Streaks: pitchers and hitters on hot streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: full methodology breakdown
Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB NRFI Picks
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides