Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Friday, September 25, 2026 are CHC @ BOS (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa), HOU @ ATH (Score: 61, 61% NRFI probability, Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez), CIN @ TOR (Score: 60, 60% NRFI probability, Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 25, 2026
NRFI targets across 17 games, built on pitching matchups, command, and venue.
NRFI Dashboard: live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm.
Yesterday's NRFI picks: MLB NRFI Bets for September 24
Tonight's Slate
- CHC at BOS (Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa), 1:05 PM
- HOU at ATH (Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez), 9:40 PM
- CIN at TOR (Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano), 7:07 PM
- CLE at KC (Gavin Williams vs Noah Cameron), 7:40 PM
- BAL at NYY (Trevor Rogers vs Brendan Beck), 4:05 PM
- ATL at MIA (Ray Kerr vs Eury Pérez), 7:10 PM
- PIT at DET (Bubba Chandler vs Jackson Jobe), 6:40 PM
- CHC at BOS (David Peterson vs Brayan Bello), 5:35 PM
- TEX at MIN (Jacob deGrom vs Joe Ryan), 8:10 PM
Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox
Clay Holmes (RHP): 76% NRFI, 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9. Alec Gamboa (LHP): 100% NRFI, 1.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 1:05 PM ET at Fenway Park (20 ft).
Alec Gamboa is the reason to look here, a 100% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. On the other side, Clay Holmes is no pushover either at 76% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Alec Gamboa is trending up as well, a 0.00 ERA across his last five starts against a 1.91 season mark. The pressure point is the Chicago Cubs lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .799 OPS in that split, so Alec Gamboa cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock.
Houston Astros at Athletics
Hunter Brown (RHP): 84% NRFI, 3.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 6. Jacob Lopez (LHP): 78% NRFI, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Sutter Health Park (26 ft).
Hunter Brown can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.6 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Jacob Lopez holds up his end too, a 78% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Hunter Brown is trending up as well, a 2.65 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.26 season mark. The loose thread is Jacob Lopez's 4.3 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or go deeper on the NRFI dashboard.
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
Nick Lodolo (LHP): 70% NRFI, 5.04 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. José Soriano (RHP): 77% NRFI, 3.72 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. First pitch 7:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre, indoor.
José Soriano anchors this one at 77% NRFI, and the combined 60% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Nick Lodolo is the softer side at 70% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The loose thread is Nick Lodolo's 3.8 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution.
Honorable Mentions
- Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: Noah Cameron riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings.
- Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Trevor Rogers riding a run of 20 scoreless first innings.
- Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: a combined 53% NRFI rate.
Games to Avoid
These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers. Jackson Jobe has surrendered a run in the first in 4 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 25% season rate. We are passing here.
Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox. David Peterson is the weak link at 50% NRFI, and the combined 35% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. We are passing here.
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins. Jacob deGrom is the weak link at 57% NRFI, and the combined 35% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Confirm the starting pitchers on the NRFI dashboard. A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds.
For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the NRFI Strategy Guide.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Live NRFI Dashboard: real time pitcher data and matchup grades
- Dinger of the Day: today's best HR picks
- MLB Streaks: pitchers and hitters on hot streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: full methodology breakdown
Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB NRFI Picks
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides