# MLB NRFI Picks: September 25, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (17 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into **Date:** 2026-09-25 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Friday, September 25, 2026** are CHC @ BOS (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa), HOU @ ATH (Score: 61, 61% NRFI probability, Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez), CIN @ TOR (Score: 60, 60% NRFI probability, Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 25, 2026 NRFI targets across 17 games, built on pitching matchups, command, and venue. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for September 24](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CHC at BOS (Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa), 1:05 PM - HOU at ATH (Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez), 9:40 PM - CIN at TOR (Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano), 7:07 PM - CLE at KC (Gavin Williams vs Noah Cameron), 7:40 PM - BAL at NYY (Trevor Rogers vs Brendan Beck), 4:05 PM - ATL at MIA (Ray Kerr vs Eury Pérez), 7:10 PM - PIT at DET (Bubba Chandler vs Jackson Jobe), 6:40 PM - CHC at BOS (David Peterson vs Brayan Bello), 5:35 PM - TEX at MIN (Jacob deGrom vs Joe Ryan), 8:10 PM ## Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox *Clay Holmes (RHP): 76% NRFI, 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9. Alec Gamboa (LHP): 100% NRFI, 1.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 1:05 PM ET at Fenway Park (20 ft).* Alec Gamboa is the reason to look here, a 100% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. On the other side, Clay Holmes is no pushover either at 76% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Alec Gamboa is trending up as well, a 0.00 ERA across his last five starts against a 1.91 season mark. The pressure point is the Chicago Cubs lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .799 OPS in that split, so Alec Gamboa cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Houston Astros at Athletics *Hunter Brown (RHP): 84% NRFI, 3.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 6. Jacob Lopez (LHP): 78% NRFI, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Sutter Health Park (26 ft).* Hunter Brown can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.6 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Jacob Lopez holds up his end too, a 78% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Hunter Brown is trending up as well, a 2.65 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.26 season mark. The loose thread is Jacob Lopez's 4.3 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays *Nick Lodolo (LHP): 70% NRFI, 5.04 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. José Soriano (RHP): 77% NRFI, 3.72 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. First pitch 7:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre, indoor.* José Soriano anchors this one at 77% NRFI, and the combined 60% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Nick Lodolo is the softer side at 70% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The loose thread is Nick Lodolo's 3.8 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Honorable Mentions - **Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals:** Noah Cameron riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. - **Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees:** Trevor Rogers riding a run of 20 scoreless first innings. - **Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins:** a combined 53% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers.** Jackson Jobe has surrendered a run in the first in 4 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 25% season rate. We are passing here. **Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox.** David Peterson is the weak link at 50% NRFI, and the combined 35% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. We are passing here. **Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins.** Jacob deGrom is the weak link at 57% NRFI, and the combined 35% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-25-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*