# MLB NRFI Picks: September 23, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Best NRFI bets tonight across the MLB slate (15 games). Pitcher first-inning suppression, lineup first-inning offense and venue combined to find the top plays. **Date:** 2026-09-23 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Wednesday, September 23, 2026** are SD @ LAD (Score: 67, 67% NRFI probability, Robbie Ray vs Blake Snell), MIA @ CHC (Score: 63, 62% NRFI probability, Ryan Gusto vs Shota Imanaga), MIL @ PHI (Score: 62, 62% NRFI probability, Logan Henderson vs Aaron Nola). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 23, 2026 NRFI targets across 15 games, built on pitching matchups, command, and venue. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for September 22](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD at LAD (Robbie Ray vs Blake Snell), 10:10 PM - MIA at CHC (Ryan Gusto vs Shota Imanaga), 7:40 PM - MIL at PHI (Logan Henderson vs Aaron Nola), 6:40 PM - CLE at BOS (Foster Griffin vs Sonny Gray), 7:10 PM - TB at NYY (Ian Seymour vs Gerrit Cole), 7:05 PM - WSH at DET (Cade Cavalli vs Framber Valdez), 1:10 PM - CWS at KC (Erick Fedde vs Seth Lugo), 7:40 PM - AZ at COL (Merrill Kelly vs Mason Adams), 8:40 PM - LAA at ATH (Walbert Ureña vs Jeffrey Springs), 9:40 PM ## San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers *Robbie Ray (LHP): 79% NRFI, 3.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.6 BB/9. Blake Snell (LHP): 88% NRFI, 1.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. First pitch 10:10 PM ET at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (515 ft).* Blake Snell can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 12.3 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. On the other side, Robbie Ray is no pushover either at 79% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Blake Snell is trending up as well, a 0.78 ERA across his last five starts against a 1.86 season mark. The pressure point is the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .783 OPS in that split, so Robbie Ray cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Robbie Ray's 4.6 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs *Ryan Gusto (RHP): 82% NRFI, 4.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. Shota Imanaga (LHP): 70% NRFI, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:40 PM ET at Wrigley Field (600 ft).* Ryan Gusto anchors this one at 82% NRFI, and the combined 62% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Shota Imanaga is the softer side at 70% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Ryan Gusto arrives on a run of 7 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the Chicago Cubs lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .770 OPS in that split, so Ryan Gusto cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies *Logan Henderson (RHP): 88% NRFI, 2.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Aaron Nola (RHP): 71% NRFI, 4.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park (20 ft).* Logan Henderson can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.3 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Aaron Nola is the softer side at 71% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Logan Henderson's 1.5 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .768 OPS in that split, so Aaron Nola cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Honorable Mentions - **Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox:** Foster Griffin riding a run of 6 scoreless first innings. - **Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees:** a combined 54% NRFI rate. - **Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers:** a combined 49% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals.** Seth Lugo's 5.06 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. This is a spot to skip. **Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. Leave this one alone. **Los Angeles Angels at Athletics.** Jeffrey Springs's 6.18 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. Leave this one alone. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-23-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*