# MLB NRFI Picks: September 22, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for September 22, 2026. 16 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Drew Rasmussen vs Max Fried leading the board. **Date:** 2026-09-22 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-22-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Tuesday, September 22, 2026** are TB @ NYY (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Drew Rasmussen vs Max Fried), WSH @ DET (Score: 63, 63% NRFI probability, Riley Cornelio vs Drew Anderson), MIA @ CHC (Score: 63, 63% NRFI probability, Janson Junk vs Shota Imanaga). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 22, 2026 The board runs 16 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for September 21](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-21-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB at NYY (Drew Rasmussen vs Max Fried), 7:05 PM - WSH at DET (Riley Cornelio vs Drew Anderson), 6:40 PM - MIA at CHC (Janson Junk vs Shota Imanaga), 7:40 PM - CLE at BOS (Parker Messick vs Payton Tolle), 6:45 PM - TB at NYY (Nick Martinez vs Carlos Rodón), 1:05 PM - MIL at PHI (Dustin May vs Zack Wheeler), 6:40 PM - AZ at COL (Michael Soroka vs Kyle Freeland), 8:40 PM - TOR at BAL (Max Scherzer vs Chris Bassitt), 6:35 PM - MIN at SF (Taj Bradley vs Anthony Molina), 9:45 PM ## Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees *Drew Rasmussen (RHP): 86% NRFI, 2.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 12. Max Fried (LHP): 79% NRFI, 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 6. First pitch 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium (55 ft).* Drew Rasmussen is the reason to look here, a 86% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Max Fried holds up his end too, a 79% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Drew Rasmussen is trending up as well, a 1.45 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.72 season mark. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers *Riley Cornelio (RHP): 100% NRFI, 4.22 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 7.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Drew Anderson (RHP): 89% NRFI, 3.62 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at Comerica Park (600 ft).* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Riley Cornelio (100% NRFI) and Drew Anderson (89%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 63% combined rate is the proof. Riley Cornelio is trending up as well, a 0.00 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.22 season mark. The pressure point is the Detroit Tigers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .745 OPS in that split, so Riley Cornelio cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs *Janson Junk (RHP): 83% NRFI, 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9. Shota Imanaga (LHP): 70% NRFI, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:40 PM ET at Wrigley Field (600 ft).* Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Janson Junk runs a 2.4 BB/9 and Shota Imanaga a 2.0 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Shota Imanaga is the softer side at 70% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The pressure point is the Chicago Cubs lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .770 OPS in that split, so Janson Junk cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Honorable Mentions - **Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox:** Parker Messick sitting at 87% NRFI. - **Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees:** Nick Martinez riding a run of 5 scoreless first innings. - **Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies:** Zack Wheeler riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. Not a first inning to trust. **Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles.** Max Scherzer has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 38% season rate. This is a spot to skip. **Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants.** Taj Bradley is the weak link at 57% NRFI, and the combined 40% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-22-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*