Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Tuesday, September 22, 2026 are TB @ NYY (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Drew Rasmussen vs Max Fried), WSH @ DET (Score: 63, 63% NRFI probability, Riley Cornelio vs Drew Anderson), MIA @ CHC (Score: 63, 63% NRFI probability, Janson Junk vs Shota Imanaga). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 22, 2026
The board runs 16 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight.
NRFI Dashboard: live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm.
Yesterday's NRFI picks: MLB NRFI Bets for September 21
Tonight's Slate
- TB at NYY (Drew Rasmussen vs Max Fried), 7:05 PM
- WSH at DET (Riley Cornelio vs Drew Anderson), 6:40 PM
- MIA at CHC (Janson Junk vs Shota Imanaga), 7:40 PM
- CLE at BOS (Parker Messick vs Payton Tolle), 6:45 PM
- TB at NYY (Nick Martinez vs Carlos Rodón), 1:05 PM
- MIL at PHI (Dustin May vs Zack Wheeler), 6:40 PM
- AZ at COL (Michael Soroka vs Kyle Freeland), 8:40 PM
- TOR at BAL (Max Scherzer vs Chris Bassitt), 6:35 PM
- MIN at SF (Taj Bradley vs Anthony Molina), 9:45 PM
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Drew Rasmussen (RHP): 86% NRFI, 2.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 12. Max Fried (LHP): 79% NRFI, 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 6. First pitch 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium (55 ft).
Drew Rasmussen is the reason to look here, a 86% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Max Fried holds up his end too, a 79% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Drew Rasmussen is trending up as well, a 1.45 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.72 season mark. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution.
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
Riley Cornelio (RHP): 100% NRFI, 4.22 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 7.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Drew Anderson (RHP): 89% NRFI, 3.62 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at Comerica Park (600 ft).
This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Riley Cornelio (100% NRFI) and Drew Anderson (89%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 63% combined rate is the proof. Riley Cornelio is trending up as well, a 0.00 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.22 season mark. The pressure point is the Detroit Tigers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .745 OPS in that split, so Riley Cornelio cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or go deeper on the NRFI dashboard.
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
Janson Junk (RHP): 83% NRFI, 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9. Shota Imanaga (LHP): 70% NRFI, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:40 PM ET at Wrigley Field (600 ft).
Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Janson Junk runs a 2.4 BB/9 and Shota Imanaga a 2.0 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Shota Imanaga is the softer side at 70% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The pressure point is the Chicago Cubs lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .770 OPS in that split, so Janson Junk cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock.
Honorable Mentions
- Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox: Parker Messick sitting at 87% NRFI.
- Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees: Nick Martinez riding a run of 5 scoreless first innings.
- Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings.
Games to Avoid
These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies. Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. Not a first inning to trust.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles. Max Scherzer has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 38% season rate. This is a spot to skip.
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants. Taj Bradley is the weak link at 57% NRFI, and the combined 40% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Confirm the starting pitchers on the NRFI dashboard. A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds.
For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the NRFI Strategy Guide.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Live NRFI Dashboard: real time pitcher data and matchup grades
- Dinger of the Day: today's best HR picks
- MLB Streaks: pitchers and hitters on hot streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: full methodology breakdown
Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB NRFI Picks
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides