# MLB NRFI Picks: September 21, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (3 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into a **Date:** 2026-09-21 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-21-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, September 21, 2026** are MIN @ SF (Score: 58, 58% NRFI probability, Bailey Ober vs Landen Roupp), TOR @ BAL (Score: 49, 49% NRFI probability, Trey Yesavage vs Shane Baz), WSH @ DET (Score: 48, 48% NRFI probability, Jackson Kent vs Drew Anderson). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 21, 2026 Tonight's 3 games, ranked by first inning scoreless probability. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for September 20](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-20-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIN at SF (Bailey Ober vs Landen Roupp), 9:45 PM - TOR at BAL (Trey Yesavage vs Shane Baz), 6:35 PM - WSH at DET (Jackson Kent vs Drew Anderson), 6:40 PM ## Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants *Bailey Ober (RHP): 70% NRFI, 4.32 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9. Landen Roupp (RHP): 83% NRFI, 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. First pitch 9:45 PM ET at Oracle Park (5 ft).* Landen Roupp anchors this one at 83% NRFI, and the combined 58% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Bailey Ober is the softer side at 70% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Landen Roupp is trending up as well, a 2.50 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.01 season mark. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles *Trey Yesavage (RHP): 67% NRFI, 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Shane Baz (RHP): 60% NRFI, 4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. First pitch 6:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30 ft).* Trey Yesavage anchors this one at 67% NRFI, and the combined 49% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Shane Baz is the softer side at 60% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Worth flagging that Shane Baz has been touched for a run in the first in 3 straight, so the season rate is doing the arguing here, not the last month. There is a small NRFI edge, nothing more, so size it lightly. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers *Jackson Kent (LHP): 57% NRFI, 6.40 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 6.4 BB/9. Drew Anderson (RHP): 89% NRFI, 3.62 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at Comerica Park (600 ft).* Drew Anderson is the reason to look here, a 89% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Jackson Kent is the softer side at 57% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Drew Anderson is trending up as well, a 2.57 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.62 season mark. The loose thread is Jackson Kent's 6.4 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. A thin NRFI lean at best. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-21-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*