# MLB NRFI Picks: September 19, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for September 19, 2026. 15 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Andrew Alvarez vs Michael McGreevy leading the board. **Date:** 2026-09-19 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-19-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Saturday, September 19, 2026** are WSH @ STL (Score: 71, 71% NRFI probability, Andrew Alvarez vs Michael McGreevy), NYY @ AZ (Score: 71, 71% NRFI probability, Cam Schlittler vs Brandon Pfaadt), TOR @ TEX (Score: 69, 69% NRFI probability, José Soriano vs Cal Quantrill). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 19, 2026 15 games, every starter evaluated. These are tonight's best NRFI plays. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for September 18](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-18-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - WSH at STL (Andrew Alvarez vs Michael McGreevy), 7:15 PM - NYY at AZ (Cam Schlittler vs Brandon Pfaadt), 8:10 PM - TOR at TEX (José Soriano vs Cal Quantrill), 7:05 PM - MIA at SD (Eury Pérez vs Casey Mize), 8:40 PM - ATH at CLE (Jacob Lopez vs Tanner Bibee), 6:10 PM - MIL at BAL (Robert Gasser vs Trevor Rogers), 4:05 PM - SEA at COL (Bryce Miller vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:10 PM - DET at CWS (Jackson Jobe vs Sean Burke), 7:10 PM - PHI at NYM (Andrew Painter vs Christian Scott), 4:10 PM ## Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals *Andrew Alvarez (LHP): 100% NRFI, 3.35 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 15. Michael McGreevy (RHP): 76% NRFI, 3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:15 PM ET at Busch Stadium (455 ft).* Andrew Alvarez is the reason to look here, a 100% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. On the other side, Michael McGreevy is no pushover either at 76% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Andrew Alvarez is trending up as well, a 2.40 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.35 season mark. NRFI projects clean here. ## New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks *Cam Schlittler (RHP): 87% NRFI, 1.95 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP): 82% NRFI, 3.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. First pitch 8:10 PM ET at Chase Field, indoor.* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Cam Schlittler (87% NRFI) and Brandon Pfaadt (82%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 71% combined rate is the proof. Cam Schlittler is trending up as well, a 0.84 ERA across his last five starts against a 1.95 season mark. The pressure point is the New York Yankees lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .747 OPS in that split, so Brandon Pfaadt cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI projects clean here. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers *José Soriano (RHP): 80% NRFI, 3.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 17. Cal Quantrill (RHP): 86% NRFI, 2.90 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. First pitch 7:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field, indoor.* Cal Quantrill is the reason to look here, a 86% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. José Soriano holds up his end too, a 80% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Cal Quantrill is trending up as well, a 2.32 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.90 season mark. The loose thread is José Soriano's 3.8 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Honorable Mentions - **Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres:** Casey Mize sitting at 92% NRFI. - **Athletics at Cleveland Guardians:** Tanner Bibee riding a run of 12 scoreless first innings. - **Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles:** Trevor Rogers riding a run of 19 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. Not a first inning to trust. **Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox.** Jackson Jobe has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 29% season rate. Leave this one alone. **Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets.** Andrew Painter's 5.54 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-19-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*