# MLB NRFI Picks: September 17, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > No Run First Inning picks for September 17, 2026. 9 games scored for joint first-inning scoreless probability to find tonight's best NRFI spots. **Date:** 2026-09-17 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-17-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Thursday, September 17, 2026** are SD @ COL (Score: 61, 61% NRFI probability, Michael King vs Tanner Gordon), MIN @ LAA (Score: 46, 46% NRFI probability, Taj Bradley vs Walbert Ureña), PHI @ NYM (Score: 46, 46% NRFI probability, Aaron Nola vs Nolan McLean). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 17, 2026 The board runs 9 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for September 16](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-16-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD at COL (Michael King vs Tanner Gordon), 3:10 PM - MIN at LAA (Taj Bradley vs Walbert Ureña), 9:38 PM - PHI at NYM (Aaron Nola vs Nolan McLean), 7:15 PM - ATH at TB (Jeffrey Springs vs Drew Rasmussen), 1:10 PM ## San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies *Michael King (RHP): 87% NRFI, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9. Tanner Gordon (RHP): 80% NRFI, 5.55 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. First pitch 3:10 PM ET at Coors Field (5,200 ft).* Michael King is the reason to look here, a 87% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. On the other side, Tanner Gordon is no pushover either at 80% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Michael King is trending up as well, a 1.40 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.03 season mark. The pressure point is the Colorado Rockies lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .785 OPS in that split, so Michael King cannot afford a sloppy first. The one caveat is the ballpark. At 5,200 feet, even good arms give back a little margin in the first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels *Taj Bradley (RHP): 59% NRFI, 3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Walbert Ureña (RHP): 88% NRFI, 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9. First pitch 9:38 PM ET at Angel Stadium (160 ft).* Walbert Ureña is the reason to look here, a 88% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Taj Bradley is the softer side at 59% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The pressure point is the Minnesota Twins lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .743 OPS in that split, so Walbert Ureña cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Taj Bradley's 3.9 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. A thin NRFI lean at best. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets *Aaron Nola (RHP): 70% NRFI, 4.69 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. Nolan McLean (RHP): 69% NRFI, 3.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9. First pitch 7:15 PM ET at Citi Field (20 ft).* Aaron Nola anchors this one at 70% NRFI, and the combined 46% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Nolan McLean is the softer side at 69% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Aaron Nola is trending up as well, a 2.03 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.69 season mark. The pressure point is the New York Mets lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .760 OPS in that split, so Aaron Nola cannot afford a sloppy first. There is a small NRFI edge, nothing more, so size it lightly. ## Honorable Mentions - **Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays:** Drew Rasmussen riding a run of 11 scoreless first innings. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-17-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*