# MLB NRFI Picks: September 14, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (10 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into **Date:** 2026-09-14 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-14-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, September 14, 2026** are SF @ STL (Score: 56, 56% NRFI probability, Landen Roupp vs Quinn Mathews), SEA @ LAA (Score: 55, 55% NRFI probability, Kade Anderson vs Reid Detmers), BAL @ NYM (Score: 55, 55% NRFI probability, Brandon Young vs Jonah Tong). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 14, 2026 10 games tonight. Here are the pitching matchups most likely to keep the first inning scoreless. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for September 13](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-13-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SF at STL (Landen Roupp vs Quinn Mathews), 7:45 PM - SEA at LAA (Kade Anderson vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM - BAL at NYM (Brandon Young vs Jonah Tong), 7:10 PM - DET at TOR (Troy Melton vs José Soriano), 7:07 PM - NYY at MIN (Will Warren vs Bailey Ober), 7:40 PM - SD at COL (Casey Mize vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 8:40 PM - ATL at CHC (AJ Smith-Shawver vs David Peterson), 7:40 PM - LAD at CIN (Tarik Skubal vs Nick Lodolo), 6:40 PM ## San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals *Landen Roupp (RHP): 82% NRFI, 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Quinn Mathews (LHP): 67% NRFI, 4.11 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 4.2 BB/9. First pitch 7:45 PM ET at Busch Stadium (455 ft).* Landen Roupp anchors this one at 82% NRFI, and the combined 56% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Quinn Mathews is the softer side at 67% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Landen Roupp is trending up as well, a 3.08 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.00 season mark. It helps that the San Francisco Giants lineup has been quiet against LHP this year at a .580 OPS, which gives Quinn Mathews margin in the opening frame. The loose thread is Quinn Mathews's 4.2 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. There is a small NRFI edge, nothing more, so size it lightly. ## Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels *Kade Anderson (LHP): 75% NRFI, 4.29 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Reid Detmers (LHP): 79% NRFI, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. First pitch 9:38 PM ET at Angel Stadium (160 ft).* Reid Detmers can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.2 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Kade Anderson holds up his end too, a 75% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Reid Detmers is trending up as well, a 0.55 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.32 season mark. It helps that the Los Angeles Angels lineup has been quiet against LHP this year at a .642 OPS, which gives Kade Anderson margin in the opening frame. A thin NRFI lean at best. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets *Brandon Young (RHP): 68% NRFI, 3.71 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9. Jonah Tong (RHP): 100% NRFI, 4.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field (20 ft).* Jonah Tong is the reason to look here, a 100% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Brandon Young is the softer side at 68% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The pressure point is the New York Mets lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .763 OPS in that split, so Brandon Young cannot afford a sloppy first. A thin NRFI lean at best. ## Honorable Mentions - **Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays:** José Soriano riding a run of 16 scoreless first innings. - **New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins:** Will Warren riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. - **San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies:** Casey Mize riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs.** David Peterson has not shown the early command to trust, a 4.1 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. Leave this one alone. **Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds.** Tarik Skubal is the weak link at 65% NRFI, and the combined 47% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Leave this one alone. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-14-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*