Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, September 13, 2026 are NYM @ NYY (Score: 66, 66% NRFI probability, Christian Scott vs Cam Schlittler), BAL @ TOR (Score: 65, 65% NRFI probability, Trevor Rogers vs Dylan Cease), SD @ SF (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Nick Pivetta vs Logan Webb). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 13, 2026
A slate of 15 games, scored for NRFI value. These are the cleanest first inning spots on the board.
NRFI Dashboard: live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm.
Yesterday's NRFI picks: MLB NRFI Bets for September 12
Tonight's Slate
- NYM at NYY (Christian Scott vs Cam Schlittler), 1:35 PM
- BAL at TOR (Trevor Rogers vs Dylan Cease), 1:37 PM
- SD at SF (Nick Pivetta vs Logan Webb), 7:20 PM
- PIT at CHC (Bubba Chandler vs Matthew Boyd), 2:20 PM
- SEA at ATH (Bryce Miller vs Jacob Lopez), 4:05 PM
- KC at BOS (Noah Cameron vs Payton Tolle), 3:05 PM
- COL at DET (Gabriel Hughes vs Jackson Jobe), 12:10 PM
- CWS at STL (David Sandlin vs Michael McGreevy), 2:15 PM
- LAD at MIA (Emmet Sheehan vs Eury Pérez), 1:40 PM
New York Mets at New York Yankees
Christian Scott (RHP): 76% NRFI, 3.81 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Cam Schlittler (RHP): 87% NRFI, 2.01 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 6. First pitch 1:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium (55 ft).
Cam Schlittler can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 11.1 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Christian Scott holds up his end too, a 76% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Cam Schlittler is trending up as well, a 1.15 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.01 season mark. The pressure point is the New York Mets lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .763 OPS in that split, so Cam Schlittler cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Christian Scott's 4.0 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Trevor Rogers (LHP): 89% NRFI, 4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 18. Dylan Cease (RHP): 67% NRFI, 2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9. First pitch 1:37 PM ET at Rogers Centre, indoor.
Trevor Rogers is the reason to look here, a 89% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Dylan Cease is the softer side at 67% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Trevor Rogers's 2.2 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or go deeper on the NRFI dashboard.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Nick Pivetta (RHP): 80% NRFI, 3.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Logan Webb (RHP): 81% NRFI, 4.10 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:20 PM ET at Oracle Park (5 ft).
Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Nick Pivetta runs a 2.6 BB/9 and Logan Webb a 2.3 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Nick Pivetta holds up his end too, a 80% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock.
Honorable Mentions
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd riding a run of 4 scoreless first innings.
- Seattle Mariners at Athletics: a combined 58% NRFI rate.
- Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox: a combined 56% NRFI rate.
Games to Avoid
These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate.
Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers. Jackson Jobe is the weak link at 33% NRFI, and the combined 22% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. We are passing here.
Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals. David Sandlin has not shown the early command to trust, a 4.5 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. This is a spot to skip.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins. Emmet Sheehan has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 57% season rate. Leave this one alone.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Confirm the starting pitchers on the NRFI dashboard. A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds.
For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the NRFI Strategy Guide.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Live NRFI Dashboard: real time pitcher data and matchup grades
- Dinger of the Day: today's best HR picks
- MLB Streaks: pitchers and hitters on hot streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: full methodology breakdown
Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB NRFI Picks
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides