# MLB NRFI Picks: September 13, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > No Run First Inning picks for September 13, 2026. 15 games scored for joint first-inning scoreless probability to find tonight's best NRFI spots. **Date:** 2026-09-13 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-13-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, September 13, 2026** are CIN @ MIL (Score: 68, 68% NRFI probability, Chase Burns vs Shane Drohan), SD @ SF (Score: 67, 67% NRFI probability, Nick Pivetta vs Logan Webb), NYM @ NYY (Score: 66, 66% NRFI probability, Christian Scott vs Cam Schlittler). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: September 13, 2026 A slate of 15 games, scored for NRFI value. These are the cleanest first inning spots on the board. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for September 12](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-12-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CIN at MIL (Chase Burns vs Shane Drohan), 2:10 PM - SD at SF (Nick Pivetta vs Logan Webb), 7:20 PM - NYM at NYY (Christian Scott vs Cam Schlittler), 1:35 PM - BAL at TOR (Trevor Rogers vs Dylan Cease), 1:37 PM - PIT at CHC (Bubba Chandler vs Matthew Boyd), 2:20 PM - SEA at ATH (Bryce Miller vs Jacob Lopez), 4:05 PM - COL at DET (Gabriel Hughes vs Jackson Jobe), 12:10 PM - LAA at WSH (Grayson Rodriguez vs Jake Irvin), 1:35 PM - PHI at ATL (Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes), 1:35 PM ## Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers *Chase Burns (RHP): 85% NRFI, 2.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Shane Drohan (LHP): 82% NRFI, 4.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. First pitch 2:10 PM ET at American Family Field, indoor.* Both arms walk into American Family Field capable of a clean opening frame, Chase Burns at 85% NRFI on the year and Shane Drohan at 82%, a combined 68% that ranks among the best on the board. The pressure point is the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .769 OPS in that split, so Chase Burns cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants *Nick Pivetta (RHP): 80% NRFI, 3.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Logan Webb (RHP): 81% NRFI, 4.10 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:20 PM ET at Oracle Park (5 ft).* Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Nick Pivetta runs a 2.6 BB/9 and Logan Webb a 2.3 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Nick Pivetta holds up his end too, a 80% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## New York Mets at New York Yankees *Christian Scott (RHP): 76% NRFI, 3.81 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Cam Schlittler (RHP): 87% NRFI, 2.01 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 6. First pitch 1:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium (55 ft).* Cam Schlittler can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 11.1 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Christian Scott holds up his end too, a 76% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Cam Schlittler is trending up as well, a 1.15 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.01 season mark. The pressure point is the New York Mets lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .757 OPS in that split, so Cam Schlittler cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Christian Scott's 4.0 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Honorable Mentions - **Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays:** Trevor Rogers riding a run of 18 scoreless first innings. - **Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs:** Matthew Boyd riding a run of 4 scoreless first innings. - **Seattle Mariners at Athletics:** a combined 58% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers.** Jackson Jobe is the weak link at 33% NRFI, and the combined 24% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. We are passing here. **Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals.** Jake Irvin has not shown the early command to trust, a 4.1 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. Leave this one alone. **Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves.** Andrew Painter's 5.71 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. This is a spot to skip. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-13-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*