# MLB NRFI Picks Today (May 7, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > Data-driven NRFI picks for tonight's 10-game MLB slate. Pitching matchups, venue conditions, and weather scored across 8 factors to find the best scoreless firs **Date:** 2026-05-07 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-7-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Thursday, May 7, 2026** are STL @ SD (Score: 65 — 71.5% combined NRFI rate, Matthew Liberatore vs Michael King), PIT @ AZ (Score: 52 — 50% combined NRFI rate, Mitch Keller vs Zac Gallen), CLE @ KC (Score: 50 — 57% combined NRFI rate, Slade Cecconi vs Seth Lugo). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - May 7, 2026 10 games tonight. Here are the pitching matchups most likely to stay scoreless in the first. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - May 6](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-6-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL @ SD (Matthew Liberatore vs Michael King) - 10:10 PM - PIT @ AZ (Mitch Keller vs Zac Gallen) - 3:40 PM - CLE @ KC (Slade Cecconi vs Seth Lugo) - 2:10 PM - ATH @ PHI (J.T. Ginn vs Andrew Painter) - 6:40 PM - TEX @ NYY (MacKenzie Gore vs Paul Blackburn) - 12:35 PM - CIN @ CHC (Rhett Lowder vs Shota Imanaga) - 2:20 PM - MIN @ WSH (Simeon Woods Richardson vs Jake Irvin) - 1:05 PM ## Pick 1: STL @ SD — Petco Park (15ft) *71.5% combined NRFI · 10:10 PM ET* - **Matthew Liberatore** (LHP) — 43% NRFI, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, streak -2 - **Michael King** (RHP) — 100% NRFI, 2.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, streak +7 When one starter is this lockdown in the first, you ride them. Michael King sits at 100% NRFI; Matthew Liberatore (43%) just needs to be average for the bet to cash. Michael King has gone NRFI in 7 straight starts. Worth noting: Matthew Liberatore's last-five ERA (5.93) is well above his season number (4.50). The trend has cooled. ## Pick 2: PIT @ AZ — Chase Field (0ft) *50% combined NRFI · 3:40 PM ET* - **Mitch Keller** (RHP) — 57% NRFI, 2.85 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, streak -1 - **Zac Gallen** (RHP) — 43% NRFI, 4.45 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, streak -1 Mitch Keller's 57% scoreless-first rate is what makes this game playable. The other half — Zac Gallen at 43% — is the mild risk to size against, but it's the kind of mild that wins more often than not. Mitch Keller's 1.05 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: CLE @ KC — Kauffman Stadium (750ft) *57% combined NRFI · 2:10 PM ET* - **Slade Cecconi** (RHP) — 43% NRFI, 6.56 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, streak -4 - **Seth Lugo** (RHP) — 71% NRFI, 2.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, streak -2 46°F at game time is a real first-inning suppressant. Slade Cecconi (43%) and Seth Lugo (71%) are both already above-average NRFI arms — the cool air just adds margin. Worth flagging: Slade Cecconi has allowed a first-inning run in 4 straight. The season profile is good but the recent trend is the opposite. ## Honorable Mentions - **ATH @ PHI** — Andrew Painter sitting at 80% NRFI. - **TEX @ NYY** — combined 41% rate. - **CIN @ CHC** — combined 35.5% rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate: **MIN @ WSH** — Combined NRFI rate sits at 42.5% — bottom of the slate. Jake Irvin (14%) is the bigger risk, but neither arm gives confidence in a clean first. **CIN @ CHC** — Rhett Lowder has allowed a first-inning run in 6 straight starts. The trend matters more than the season 14% rate, and tonight is not the spot to fade it. **TEX @ NYY** — Combined NRFI rate sits at 41% — bottom of the slate. Paul Blackburn (25%) is the bigger risk, but neither arm gives confidence in a clean first. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-7-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*