# MLB NRFI Picks Today (May 4, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets

> MLB NRFI picks for May 4, 2026 - 12 games scored for first-inning scoreless probability. Davis Martin vs José Soriano leads the board. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-05-04  
**Author:** Jason Bowman  
**Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-4-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

---

**Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, May 4, 2026** are CWS @ LAA (Score: 70 — 60.5% combined NRFI rate, Davis Martin vs José Soriano), BAL @ NYY (Score: 64 — 62% combined NRFI rate, Shane Baz vs Cam Schlittler), PHI @ MIA (Score: 63 — 66.5% combined NRFI rate, Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB NRFI Picks Today - May 4, 2026

The 12-game board has several clean first-inning matchups tonight.

> [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm.

> **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - May 3](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-3-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- CWS @ LAA (Davis Martin vs José Soriano) - 9:38 PM
- BAL @ NYY (Shane Baz vs Cam Schlittler) - 7:05 PM
- PHI @ MIA (Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk) - 6:40 PM
- CLE @ KC (Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha) - 7:40 PM
- TOR @ TB (Eric Lauer vs Nick Martinez) - 6:40 PM
- MIL @ STL (Chad Patrick vs Kyle Leahy) - 7:45 PM

## Pick 1: CWS @ LAA — Angel Stadium (160ft)

*60.5% combined NRFI · 9:38 PM ET*

- **Davis Martin** (RHP) — 50% NRFI, 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, streak +1
- **José Soriano** (RHP) — 71% NRFI, 0.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, streak +3

Neither starter lets traffic on base. Davis Martin carries a 1.08 WHIP, José Soriano a 0.94 — that means few first-inning baserunners, which means few first-inning runs.

Davis Martin's last-five ERA (1.44) is meaningfully better than his season 1.95 — the form is trending the right way. Calm conditions (0 mph wind) keep balls from carrying.

## Pick 2: BAL @ NYY — Yankee Stadium (55ft)

*62% combined NRFI · 7:05 PM ET*

- **Shane Baz** (RHP) — 67% NRFI, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, streak -1
- **Cam Schlittler** (RHP) — 57% NRFI, 1.51 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, streak -1

Cold weather is a quiet edge: at 47°F in Yankee Stadium, balls don't carry and pitchers get more swing-and-miss on breaking stuff. Pair that with Shane Baz and Cam Schlittler on the mound and the lean is clear.

Cam Schlittler's 0.74 WHIP keeps the bases empty early.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi).

## Pick 3: PHI @ MIA — loanDepot park (Indoor)

*66.5% combined NRFI · 6:40 PM ET*

- **Aaron Nola** (RHP) — 50% NRFI, 6.03 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, streak -1
- **Janson Junk** (RHP) — 83% NRFI, 3.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, streak +3

When one starter is this lockdown in the first, you ride them. Janson Junk sits at 83% NRFI; Aaron Nola (50%) just needs to be average for the bet to cash.

Janson Junk's 1.06 WHIP keeps the bases empty early. The roof at loanDepot park takes weather out of the equation entirely.

## Honorable Mentions

- **CLE @ KC** — Tanner Bibee sitting at 71% NRFI.
- **TOR @ TB** — Nick Martinez riding a 5-game NRFI streak.
- **MIL @ STL** — combined 46% rate.

## Games to Avoid

These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate:

**MIL @ STL** — Chad Patrick's 25% NRFI rate is the weak link here. Combined with Kyle Leahy on the other side, this game has too many ways to score in the first.

**TOR @ TB** — Eric Lauer's 6.00 ERA tells the story — he is vulnerable early and often, and the matchup math doesn't pencil out.

**CLE @ KC** — Michael Wacha's 50% NRFI rate is the weak link here. Combined with Tanner Bibee on the other side, this game has too many ways to score in the first.

## Related Guides

- [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard)
- [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110.

For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades
- [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-4-2026) - today's best HR picks
- [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown

*Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks)
- Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


---

*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*