# MLB NRFI Picks Today (May 25, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > Data-driven NRFI picks for tonight's 13-game MLB slate. Pitching matchups, venue conditions, and weather scored across 8 factors to find the best scoreless firs **Date:** 2026-05-25 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, May 25, 2026** are MIA @ TOR (Score: 66 — 70% combined NRFI rate, Janson Junk vs Trey Yesavage), TB @ BAL (Score: 63 — 67% combined NRFI rate, Shane McClanahan vs Kyle Bradish), PHI @ SD (Score: 58 — 60% combined NRFI rate, Jesús Luzardo vs Randy Vásquez). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - May 25, 2026 NRFI targets for a 13-game slate - pitching matchups, venue factors, and recent form. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - May 24](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIA @ TOR (Janson Junk vs Trey Yesavage) - 7:07 PM - TB @ BAL (Shane McClanahan vs Kyle Bradish) - 1:35 PM - PHI @ SD (Jesús Luzardo vs Randy Vásquez) - 6:40 PM - AZ @ SF (Merrill Kelly vs Landen Roupp) - 5:05 PM - STL @ MIL (Matthew Liberatore vs Jacob Misiorowski) - 2:10 PM - WSH @ CLE (Zack Littell vs Tanner Bibee) - 6:10 PM - CIN @ NYM (Nick Lodolo vs Nolan McLean) - 4:10 PM - COL @ LAD (Tanner Gordon vs Emmet Sheehan) - 9:10 PM - HOU @ TEX (Tatsuya Imai vs Kumar Rocker) - 7:05 PM ## Pick 1: MIA @ TOR — Rogers Centre (Indoor) *70% combined NRFI · 7:07 PM ET* - **Janson Junk** (RHP) — 60% NRFI, 5.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, streak -3 - **Trey Yesavage** (RHP) — 80% NRFI, 1.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, streak +3 Trey Yesavage is the anchor here — a 80% NRFI rate that does most of the work for this play. Janson Junk on the other side is fine at 60%, but it's the elite arm carrying the lean. Worth noting: Janson Junk's last-five ERA (6.59) is well above his season number (5.07). The trend has cooled. Trey Yesavage's 1.07 WHIP keeps the bases empty early. Worth flagging: Janson Junk has allowed a first-inning run in 3 straight. The season profile is good but the recent trend is the opposite. ## Pick 2: TB @ BAL — Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30ft) *67% combined NRFI · 1:35 PM ET* - **Shane McClanahan** (LHP) — 44% NRFI, 2.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, streak -2 - **Kyle Bradish** (RHP) — 90% NRFI, 4.13 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, streak -1 Kyle Bradish's 90% scoreless-first rate is what makes this game playable. The other half — Shane McClanahan at 44% — is the mild risk to size against, but it's the kind of mild that wins more often than not. Shane McClanahan's last-five ERA (1.37) is meaningfully better than his season 2.82 — the form is trending the right way. Shane McClanahan's 1.05 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: PHI @ SD — Petco Park (15ft) *60% combined NRFI · 6:40 PM ET* - **Jesús Luzardo** (LHP) — 50% NRFI, 4.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, streak +2 - **Randy Vásquez** (RHP) — 70% NRFI, 2.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, streak -1 Randy Vásquez's 70% scoreless-first rate is what makes this game playable. The other half — Jesús Luzardo at 50% — is the mild risk to size against, but it's the kind of mild that wins more often than not. Jesús Luzardo's last-five ERA (2.88) is meaningfully better than his season 4.85 — the form is trending the right way. Calm conditions (3 mph wind) keep balls from carrying. ## Honorable Mentions - **AZ @ SF** — Landen Roupp sitting at 70% NRFI. - **STL @ MIL** — combined 55% rate. - **WSH @ CLE** — Tanner Bibee sitting at 73% NRFI. ## Games to Avoid These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate: **CIN @ NYM** — Skip this one: 31.5% combined NRFI rate, with Nolan McLean the obvious weak link at 30%. **COL @ LAD** — Emmet Sheehan's 33% NRFI rate is the weak link here. Combined with Tanner Gordon on the other side, this game has too many ways to score in the first. **HOU @ TEX** — Kumar Rocker's 25% NRFI rate is the weak link here. Combined with Tatsuya Imai on the other side, this game has too many ways to score in the first. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-25-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*