# MLB NRFI Picks Today (May 23, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > Best NRFI bets tonight across a 16-game MLB slate. Pitcher NRFI rates, ERA, streaks, and venue factors combined to surface the top plays. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-23 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Saturday, May 23, 2026** are STL @ CIN (Score: 68 — 83.5% combined NRFI rate, Kyle Leahy vs Chase Petty), CWS @ SF (Score: 67 — 66.5% combined NRFI rate, Bryan Hudson vs Adrian Houser), TEX @ LAA (Score: 63 — 58% combined NRFI rate, Nathan Eovaldi vs Walbert Ureña). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - May 23, 2026 NRFI targets for a 16-game slate - pitching matchups, venue factors, and recent form. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - May 22](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL @ CIN (Kyle Leahy vs Chase Petty) - 7:15 PM - CWS @ SF (Bryan Hudson vs Adrian Houser) - 4:05 PM - TEX @ LAA (Nathan Eovaldi vs Walbert Ureña) - 10:05 PM - NYM @ MIA (Freddy Peralta vs Max Meyer) - 4:10 PM - CLE @ PHI (Slade Cecconi vs Zack Wheeler) - 4:05 PM - PIT @ TOR (Paul Skenes vs Patrick Corbin) - 3:07 PM - COL @ AZ (Michael Lorenzen vs Zac Gallen) - 10:10 PM - SEA @ KC (George Kirby vs Stephen Kolek) - 4:10 PM - MIN @ BOS (Taj Bradley vs Jovani Morán) - 4:10 PM ## Pick 1: STL @ CIN — Great American Ball Park (490ft) *83.5% combined NRFI · 7:15 PM ET* - **Kyle Leahy** (RHP) — 67% NRFI, 3.94 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, streak -1 - **Chase Petty** (RHP) — 100% NRFI, 4.76 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, streak +1 Chase Petty's 100% scoreless-first rate is what makes this game playable. The other half — Kyle Leahy at 67% — is the mild risk to size against, but it's the kind of mild that wins more often than not. Kyle Leahy's last-five ERA (3.09) is meaningfully better than his season 3.94 — the form is trending the right way. Chase Petty's 1.06 WHIP keeps the bases empty early. ## Pick 2: CWS @ SF — Oracle Park (5ft) *66.5% combined NRFI · 4:05 PM ET* - **Bryan Hudson** (LHP) — 100% NRFI, 1.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, streak +2 - **Adrian Houser** (RHP) — 33% NRFI, 5.25 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, streak +1 Bryan Hudson is the anchor here — a 100% NRFI rate that does most of the work for this play. Adrian Houser on the other side is fine at 33%, but it's the elite arm carrying the lean. Bryan Hudson's last-five ERA (0.00) is meaningfully better than his season 1.57 — the form is trending the right way. 52°F at first pitch knocks a few feet off any deep contact. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: TEX @ LAA — Angel Stadium (160ft) *58% combined NRFI · 10:05 PM ET* - **Nathan Eovaldi** (RHP) — 33% NRFI, 3.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, streak +1 - **Walbert Ureña** (RHP) — 83% NRFI, 2.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, streak +3 Walbert Ureña's 83% scoreless-first rate is what makes this game playable. The other half — Nathan Eovaldi at 33% — is the mild risk to size against, but it's the kind of mild that wins more often than not. Nathan Eovaldi's last-five ERA (2.45) is meaningfully better than his season 3.62 — the form is trending the right way. Nathan Eovaldi's 1.15 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. ## Honorable Mentions - **NYM @ MIA** — Freddy Peralta sitting at 70% NRFI. - **CLE @ PHI** — combined 40% rate. - **PIT @ TOR** — combined 40% rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate: **COL @ AZ** — Zac Gallen has allowed a first-inning run in 4 straight starts. The trend matters more than the season 30% rate, and tonight is not the spot to fade it. **SEA @ KC** — Stephen Kolek has allowed a first-inning run in 3 straight starts. The trend matters more than the season 0% rate, and tonight is not the spot to fade it. **MIN @ BOS** — Skip this one: 25% combined NRFI rate, with Jovani Morán the obvious weak link at 0%. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-23-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*