# MLB NRFI Picks Today (May 14, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets

> Data-driven NRFI picks for tonight's 11-game MLB slate. Pitching matchups, venue conditions, and weather scored across 8 factors to find the best scoreless firs

**Date:** 2026-05-14  
**Author:** Jason Bowman  
**Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-14-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Thursday, May 14, 2026** are WSH @ CIN (Score: 71 — 62.5% combined NRFI rate, Foster Griffin vs Chase Burns), SF @ LAD (Score: 68 — 65.5% combined NRFI rate, Landen Roupp vs Emmet Sheehan), DET @ NYM (Score: 65 — 54.5% combined NRFI rate, Keider Montero vs Nolan McLean). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB NRFI Picks Today - May 14, 2026

Tonight's 11-game slate, ranked by first-inning scoreless probability.

> [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm.

> **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - May 13](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-13-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- WSH @ CIN (Foster Griffin vs Chase Burns) - 12:40 PM
- SF @ LAD (Landen Roupp vs Emmet Sheehan) - 10:10 PM
- DET @ NYM (Keider Montero vs Nolan McLean) - 1:10 PM
- STL @ ATH (Michael McGreevy vs Jacob Lopez) - 3:05 PM
- KC @ CWS (Kris Bubic vs Anthony Kay) - 7:40 PM
- PHI @ BOS (Jesús Luzardo vs Ranger Suarez) - 6:45 PM
- MIA @ MIN (Braxton Garrett vs Zebby Matthews) - 1:40 PM
- SEA @ HOU (Luis Castillo vs Mike Burrows) - 2:10 PM

## Pick 1: WSH @ CIN — Great American Ball Park (490ft)

*62.5% combined NRFI · 12:40 PM ET*

- **Foster Griffin** (LHP) — 50% NRFI, 2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, streak -2
- **Chase Burns** (RHP) — 75% NRFI, 2.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, streak +2

Chase Burns is the anchor here — a 75% NRFI rate that does most of the work for this play. Foster Griffin on the other side is fine at 50%, but it's the elite arm carrying the lean.

Chase Burns's recent ERA (1.49 over his last five) is sharper than his season 2.11. Foster Griffin's 1.03 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners.

## Pick 2: SF @ LAD — UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (515ft)

*65.5% combined NRFI · 10:10 PM ET*

- **Landen Roupp** (RHP) — 88% NRFI, 3.09 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, streak +3
- **Emmet Sheehan** (RHP) — 43% NRFI, 4.79 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, streak +1

Landen Roupp's 88% scoreless-first rate is what makes this game playable. The other half — Emmet Sheehan at 43% — is the mild risk to size against, but it's the kind of mild that wins more often than not.

Emmet Sheehan's recent ERA (3.88 over his last five) is sharper than his season 4.79. Landen Roupp's 1.10 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi).

## Pick 3: DET @ NYM — Citi Field (20ft)

*54.5% combined NRFI · 1:10 PM ET*

- **Keider Montero** (RHP) — 71% NRFI, 3.18 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, streak +1
- **Nolan McLean** (RHP) — 38% NRFI, 2.78 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, streak +1

Two pitchers who don't allow free passes or cheap singles set up a clean first by default. Keider Montero (0.96 WHIP) opposing Nolan McLean (0.90) is exactly that profile.

## Honorable Mentions

- **STL @ ATH** — Michael McGreevy riding a 4-game NRFI streak.
- **KC @ CWS** — Kris Bubic riding a 6-game NRFI streak.
- **PHI @ BOS** — Ranger Suarez sitting at 71% NRFI.

## Games to Avoid

These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate:

**MIA @ MIN** — Braxton Garrett's 0% NRFI rate is the weak link here. Combined with Zebby Matthews on the other side, this game has too many ways to score in the first.

**SEA @ HOU** — Mike Burrows's 5.04 ERA tells the story — he is vulnerable early and often, and the matchup math doesn't pencil out.

## Related Guides

- [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard)
- [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110.

For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades
- [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-14-2026) - today's best HR picks
- [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown

*Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks)
- Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*