# MLB NRFI Picks Today (May 12, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > Best NRFI bets tonight across a 15-game MLB slate. Pitcher NRFI rates, ERA, streaks, and venue factors combined to surface the top plays. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-12 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-12-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Tuesday, May 12, 2026** are TB @ TOR (Score: 70 — 62% combined NRFI rate, Shane McClanahan vs Patrick Corbin), DET @ NYM (Score: 65 — 63% combined NRFI rate, Jack Flaherty vs Freddy Peralta), LAA @ CLE (Score: 55 — 56.5% combined NRFI rate, Walbert Ureña vs Slade Cecconi). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - May 12, 2026 15 games tonight. Here are the pitching matchups most likely to stay scoreless in the first. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - May 11](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-11-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB @ TOR (Shane McClanahan vs Patrick Corbin) - 7:07 PM - DET @ NYM (Jack Flaherty vs Freddy Peralta) - 7:10 PM - LAA @ CLE (Walbert Ureña vs Slade Cecconi) - 6:10 PM - STL @ ATH (Andre Pallante vs Jeffrey Springs) - 9:40 PM - CHC @ ATL (Colin Rea vs Grant Holmes) - 7:15 PM - MIA @ MIN (Eury Pérez vs Bailey Ober) - 7:40 PM - COL @ PIT (Michael Lorenzen vs Paul Skenes) - 6:40 PM - SF @ LAD (Adrian Houser vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto) - 10:10 PM - AZ @ TEX (Zac Gallen vs MacKenzie Gore) - 8:05 PM ## Pick 1: TB @ TOR — Rogers Centre (Indoor) *62% combined NRFI · 7:07 PM ET* - **Shane McClanahan** (LHP) — 57% NRFI, 2.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, streak +3 - **Patrick Corbin** (LHP) — 67% NRFI, 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, streak +2 Patrick Corbin is the anchor here — a 67% NRFI rate that does most of the work for this play. Shane McClanahan on the other side is fine at 57%, but it's the elite arm carrying the lean. Patrick Corbin's recent ERA (2.93 over his last five) is sharper than his season 3.60. Shane McClanahan's 1.07 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. ## Pick 2: DET @ NYM — Citi Field (20ft) *63% combined NRFI · 7:10 PM ET* - **Jack Flaherty** (RHP) — 63% NRFI, 5.56 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, streak +1 - **Freddy Peralta** (RHP) — 63% NRFI, 3.12 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, streak -1 Cold weather is a quiet edge: at 49°F in Citi Field, balls don't carry and pitchers get more swing-and-miss on breaking stuff. Pair that with Jack Flaherty and Freddy Peralta on the mound and the lean is clear. Freddy Peralta's recent ERA (2.30 over his last five) is sharper than his season 3.12. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: LAA @ CLE — Progressive Field (660ft) *56.5% combined NRFI · 6:10 PM ET* - **Walbert Ureña** (RHP) — 75% NRFI, 3.22 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, streak +1 - **Slade Cecconi** (RHP) — 38% NRFI, 6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, streak -5 Walbert Ureña is the anchor here — a 75% NRFI rate that does most of the work for this play. Slade Cecconi on the other side is fine at 38%, but it's the elite arm carrying the lean. 42°F at first pitch knocks a few feet off any deep contact. Worth flagging: Slade Cecconi has allowed a first-inning run in 5 straight starts. ## Honorable Mentions - **STL @ ATH** — combined 53% rate. - **CHC @ ATL** — combined 48.5% rate. - **MIA @ MIN** — Bailey Ober riding a 3-game NRFI streak. ## Games to Avoid These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate: **COL @ PIT** — Combined NRFI rate sits at 31.5% — bottom of the slate. Paul Skenes (25%) is the bigger risk, but neither arm gives confidence in a clean first. **SF @ LAD** — Adrian Houser's 6.19 ERA tells the story — he is vulnerable early and often, and the matchup math doesn't pencil out. **AZ @ TEX** — Skip this one: 44% combined NRFI rate, with Zac Gallen the obvious weak link at 38%. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-12-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*