# MLB NRFI Picks Today (May 11, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > MLB NRFI picks for May 11, 2026 - 6 games scored for first-inning scoreless probability. Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman leads the board. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-11 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-11-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, May 11, 2026** are TB @ TOR (Score: 65 — 59% combined NRFI rate, Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman), SEA @ HOU (Score: 58 — 44% combined NRFI rate, George Kirby vs Peter Lambert), NYY @ BAL (Score: 38 — 34% combined NRFI rate, Ryan Weathers vs Brandon Young). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - May 11, 2026 6 games, every starter evaluated. These are tonight's best NRFI plays. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - May 10](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-10-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB @ TOR (Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman) - 7:07 PM - SEA @ HOU (George Kirby vs Peter Lambert) - 8:10 PM - NYY @ BAL (Ryan Weathers vs Brandon Young) - 6:35 PM - AZ @ TEX (Michael Soroka vs Nathan Eovaldi) - 8:05 PM ## Pick 1: TB @ TOR — Rogers Centre (Indoor) *59% combined NRFI · 7:07 PM ET* - **Drew Rasmussen** (RHP) — 43% NRFI, 2.95 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, streak -1 - **Kevin Gausman** (RHP) — 75% NRFI, 3.09 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, streak -1 Kevin Gausman's 75% scoreless-first rate is what makes this game playable. The other half — Drew Rasmussen at 43% — is the mild risk to size against, but it's the kind of mild that wins more often than not. Worth noting: Kevin Gausman's last-five ERA (4.12) is up from his 3.09 season mark. Drew Rasmussen's 0.93 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. ## Pick 2: SEA @ HOU — Daikin Park (Indoor) *44% combined NRFI · 8:10 PM ET* - **George Kirby** (RHP) — 38% NRFI, 2.94 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, streak +3 - **Peter Lambert** (RHP) — 50% NRFI, 2.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, streak +2 When one starter is this lockdown in the first, you ride them. Peter Lambert sits at 50% NRFI; George Kirby (38%) just needs to be average for the bet to cash. George Kirby's 1.10 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. The roof at Daikin Park takes weather out of the equation entirely. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: NYY @ BAL — Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30ft) *34% combined NRFI · 6:35 PM ET* - **Ryan Weathers** (LHP) — 43% NRFI, 3.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, streak +1 - **Brandon Young** (RHP) — 25% NRFI, 4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, streak -3 Weather is doing the heavy lifting. 54°F at first pitch in Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses batted-ball distance, which favors both starters even if the matchup looked even on paper. Worth flagging: Brandon Young has allowed a first-inning run in 3 straight starts. ## Honorable Mentions - **AZ @ TEX** — combined 27% rate. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-11-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*