# MLB NRFI Picks Today (May 10, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > Data-driven NRFI picks for tonight's 15-game MLB slate. Pitching matchups, venue conditions, and weather scored across 8 factors to find the best scoreless firs **Date:** 2026-05-10 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-10-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, May 10, 2026** are TB @ BOS (Score: 78 — 85.5% combined NRFI rate, Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle), NYY @ MIL (Score: 65 — 79% combined NRFI rate, Carlos Rodón vs Logan Henderson), STL @ SD (Score: 57 — 71% combined NRFI rate, Kyle Leahy vs Walker Buehler). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - May 10, 2026 NRFI targets for a 15-game slate - pitching matchups, venue factors, and recent form. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - May 9](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-9-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB @ BOS (Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle) - 1:35 PM - NYY @ MIL (Carlos Rodón vs Logan Henderson) - 2:10 PM - STL @ SD (Kyle Leahy vs Walker Buehler) - 4:10 PM - ATL @ LAD (Bryce Elder vs Justin Wrobleski) - 4:10 PM - PIT @ SF (Bubba Chandler vs Tyler Mahle) - 4:05 PM - CHC @ TEX (Jameson Taillon vs Jacob deGrom) - 2:35 PM - WSH @ MIA (Cade Cavalli vs Sandy Alcantara) - 12:15 PM - SEA @ CWS (Logan Gilbert vs Davis Martin) - 2:10 PM - ATH @ BAL (Luis Severino vs Chris Bassitt) - 1:35 PM ## Pick 1: TB @ BOS — Fenway Park (20ft) *85.5% combined NRFI · 1:35 PM ET* - **Nick Martinez** (RHP) — 71% NRFI, 1.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, streak -1 - **Payton Tolle** (LHP) — 100% NRFI, 2.04 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, streak +3 This is the kind of game NRFI bettors live for. Nick Martinez (71%) and Payton Tolle (100%) both clear the 70% threshold individually, and combined they sit at 85.5%. Nick Martinez's 1.02 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. 51°F at first pitch knocks a few feet off any deep contact. ## Pick 2: NYY @ MIL — American Family Field (Indoor) *79% combined NRFI · 2:10 PM ET* - **Carlos Rodón** (LHP) — 58% NRFI, 3.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, streak -2 - **Logan Henderson** (RHP) — 100% NRFI, 4.50 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, streak +2 When one starter is this lockdown in the first, you ride them. Logan Henderson sits at 100% NRFI; Carlos Rodón (58%) just needs to be average for the bet to cash. Carlos Rodón's 1.05 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. The roof at American Family Field takes weather out of the equation entirely. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: STL @ SD — Petco Park (15ft) *71% combined NRFI · 4:10 PM ET* - **Kyle Leahy** (RHP) — 71% NRFI, 4.93 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, streak +3 - **Walker Buehler** (RHP) — 71% NRFI, 5.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, streak -1 Both arms can pitch a clean first. Kyle Leahy is at 71% NRFI on the season, Walker Buehler at 71% — combined 71%, top-tier on the slate. Walker Buehler's recent ERA (4.80 over his last five) is sharper than his season 5.64. Calm conditions (1 mph wind) keep balls from carrying. Walker Buehler's 5.64 season ERA is a concern beyond the first — the play is specifically about the opening frame, not the full game. ## Honorable Mentions - **ATL @ LAD** — combined 41.5% rate. - **PIT @ SF** — Bubba Chandler sitting at 71% NRFI. - **CHC @ TEX** — Jameson Taillon sitting at 71% NRFI. ## Games to Avoid These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate: **WSH @ MIA** — Cade Cavalli has allowed a first-inning run in 6 straight starts. The trend matters more than the season 14% rate, and tonight is not the spot to fade it. **SEA @ CWS** — Logan Gilbert's 13% NRFI rate is the weak link here. Combined with Davis Martin on the other side, this game has too many ways to score in the first. **ATH @ BAL** — Chris Bassitt's 5.91 ERA tells the story — he is vulnerable early and often, and the matchup math doesn't pencil out. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-10-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*