# MLB NRFI Picks Today (March 28, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > MLB NRFI picks for March 28, 2026 - 15 games scored for first-inning scoreless probability. Jack Flaherty vs Randy Vásquez leads the board. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-03-28 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-mar-28-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Saturday, March 28, 2026** are DET @ SD (Score: 74 — 61.5% combined NRFI rate, Jack Flaherty vs Randy Vásquez), PIT @ NYM (Score: 72 — 61.5% combined NRFI rate, Mitch Keller vs David Peterson), NYY @ SF (Score: 72 — 57.5% combined NRFI rate, Will Warren vs Tyler Mahle). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - March 28, 2026 15 games, every starter evaluated. These are tonight's best NRFI plays. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - March 27](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-mar-27-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - DET @ SD (Jack Flaherty vs Randy Vásquez) - 8:40 PM - PIT @ NYM (Mitch Keller vs David Peterson) - 4:10 PM - NYY @ SF (Will Warren vs Tyler Mahle) - 7:15 PM - CWS @ MIL (Sean Burke vs Chad Patrick) - 7:10 PM - WSH @ CHC (Miles Mikolas vs Cade Horton) - 2:20 PM - ATH @ TOR (Jeffrey Springs vs Dylan Cease) - 3:07 PM - TB @ STL (Joe Boyle vs Michael McGreevy) - 2:15 PM - KC @ ATL (Michael Wacha vs Reynaldo López) - 7:15 PM - CLE @ SEA (Joey Cantillo vs Bryan Woo) - 9:40 PM ## Pick 1: DET @ SD - Petco Park (15ft) Combined NRFI: 61.5% | 8:40 PM ET **DET vs SD** - **Jack Flaherty** (RHP) - NRFI: 20-11 (65%), Streak: +3, ERA: 4.64, WHIP: 1.28 - **Randy Vásquez** (RHP) - NRFI: 15-11 (58%), Streak: -2, ERA: 3.84, WHIP: 1.32 Why this game? Jack Flaherty at 65% and Randy Vásquez at 58% combine for a 61.5% scoreless first inning - the slate's top NRFI matchup. ## Pick 2: PIT @ NYM - Citi Field (20ft) Combined NRFI: 61.5% | 4:10 PM ET **PIT vs NYM** - **Mitch Keller** (RHP) - NRFI: 20-12 (63%), Streak: -2, ERA: 4.19, WHIP: 1.26 - **David Peterson** (RHP) - NRFI: 18-12 (60%), Streak: -5, ERA: 4.22, WHIP: 1.37 Solid NRFI opportunity. Mitch Keller at 63% and David Peterson at 60% give this game a 61.5% combined rate. Cold conditions (37°F) work in favor of the pitchers. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: NYY @ SF - Oracle Park (5ft) Combined NRFI: 57.5% | 7:15 PM ET **NYY vs SF** - **Will Warren** (RHP) - NRFI: 17-16 (52%), Streak: -1, ERA: 4.44, WHIP: 1.37 - **Tyler Mahle** (RHP) - NRFI: 10-6 (63%), Streak: -1, ERA: 2.18, WHIP: 1.13 A 57.5% combined scoreless rate makes this game a viable NRFI target. Will Warren at 52%, Tyler Mahle at 63%. A 3.31 combined season ERA backs up the first-inning numbers. ## Honorable Mentions - **CWS @ MIL** - Sean Burke (36% NRFI) vs Chad Patrick (65% NRFI), Combined: 50.5% - **WSH @ CHC** - Miles Mikolas (42% NRFI) vs Cade Horton (59% NRFI), Combined: 50.5% - **ATH @ TOR** - Jeffrey Springs (47% NRFI) vs Dylan Cease (53% NRFI), Combined: 50% ## Games to Avoid Skip these - the first inning is more likely to produce runs: - **TB @ STL** - low away NRFI (22%), low home NRFI (38%), Michael McGreevy on 8-game RFI streak - **KC @ ATL** - low home NRFI (0%) - **CLE @ SEA** - low away NRFI (31%), low home NRFI (40%) ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-mar-28-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*