# MLB NRFI Picks Today (June 28, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > Best NRFI bets tonight across a 15-game MLB slate. Pitcher NRFI rates, ERA, streaks, and venue factors combined to surface the top plays. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-06-28 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-28-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, June 28, 2026** are ATL @ SF (Score: 74 — 62% combined NRFI rate, Chris Sale vs Robbie Ray), WSH @ BAL (Score: 67 — 63% combined NRFI rate, Zack Littell vs Kyle Bradish), MIA @ STL (Score: 66 — 60% combined NRFI rate, Tyler Phillips vs Kyle Leahy). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - June 28, 2026 15 games tonight. Here are the pitching matchups most likely to stay scoreless in the first. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - June 27](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jun-27-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - ATL @ SF (Chris Sale vs Robbie Ray) - 4:05 PM - WSH @ BAL (Zack Littell vs Kyle Bradish) - 1:35 PM - MIA @ STL (Tyler Phillips vs Kyle Leahy) - 2:15 PM - AZ @ TB (Merrill Kelly vs Drew Rasmussen) - 1:40 PM - HOU @ DET (Hunter Brown vs Jack Flaherty) - 1:40 PM - LAD @ SD (Emmet Sheehan vs Michael King) - 4:10 PM - TEX @ TOR (Kumar Rocker vs Shane Bieber) - 1:37 PM - KC @ CWS (Luinder Avila vs Anthony Kay) - 2:10 PM - ATH @ LAA (Aaron Civale vs Sam Aldegheri) - 3:15 PM ## Pick 1: ATL @ SF — Oracle Park (5ft) *62% combined NRFI · 4:05 PM ET* - **Chris Sale** (LHP) — 64% NRFI, 2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, streak +4 - **Robbie Ray** (LHP) — 60% NRFI, 3.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, streak +2 Weather is doing the heavy lifting. 54°F at first pitch in Oracle Park suppresses batted-ball distance, which favors both starters even if the matchup looked even on paper. Chris Sale brings a 4-game NRFI streak into tonight. Chris Sale's 1.05 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. ## Pick 2: WSH @ BAL — Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30ft) *63% combined NRFI · 1:35 PM ET* - **Zack Littell** (RHP) — 45% NRFI, 5.40 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, streak -1 - **Kyle Bradish** (RHP) — 81% NRFI, 3.64 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, streak -1 Kyle Bradish's 81% scoreless-first rate is what makes this game playable. The other half — Zack Littell at 45% — is the mild risk to size against, but it's the kind of mild that wins more often than not. Calm conditions (3 mph wind) keep balls from carrying. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: MIA @ STL — Busch Stadium (455ft) *60% combined NRFI · 2:15 PM ET* - **Tyler Phillips** (RHP) — 60% NRFI, 3.09 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, streak +1 - **Kyle Leahy** (RHP) — 60% NRFI, 4.24 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, streak +1 Weather is doing the heavy lifting. 81°F at first pitch in Busch Stadium suppresses batted-ball distance, which favors both starters even if the matchup looked even on paper. Worth noting: Tyler Phillips's last-five ERA (5.04) is well above his season number (3.09). The trend has cooled. ## Honorable Mentions - **AZ @ TB** — Drew Rasmussen riding a 3-game NRFI streak. - **HOU @ DET** — combined 55% rate. - **LAD @ SD** — Michael King sitting at 75% NRFI. ## Games to Avoid These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate: **TEX @ TOR** — Shane Bieber's 9.82 ERA tells the story — he is vulnerable early and often, and the matchup math doesn't pencil out. **KC @ CWS** — Luinder Avila has allowed a first-inning run in 6 straight starts. The trend matters more than the season 0% rate, and tonight is not the spot to fade it. **ATH @ LAA** — Sam Aldegheri has allowed a first-inning run in 4 straight starts. The trend matters more than the season 0% rate, and tonight is not the spot to fade it. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jun-28-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*