# MLB NRFI Picks Today (July 7, 2026): Best No Run First Inning Bets > Best NRFI bets tonight across the MLB slate (16 games). Pitcher NRFI rates, ERA, command and venue combined to find the top plays. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-07-07 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-7-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Tuesday, July 7, 2026** are MIL @ STL (Score: 69, 62% combined NRFI rate, Jacob Misiorowski vs Michael McGreevy), HOU @ WSH (Score: 62, 61% combined NRFI rate, Tatsuya Imai vs Andrew Alvarez). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's eight factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: July 7, 2026 NRFI targets across 16 games, built on pitching matchups, command, and venue. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for July 6](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-6-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIL at STL (Jacob Misiorowski vs Michael McGreevy), 7:45 PM - HOU at WSH (Tatsuya Imai vs Andrew Alvarez), 6:45 PM - LAA at TEX (José Soriano vs Jacob deGrom), 8:05 PM - PHI at CIN (Zack Wheeler vs Andrew Abbott), 7:10 PM - CHC at BAL (Matthew Boyd vs Shane Baz), 6:35 PM - ATH at DET (J.T. Ginn vs Tarik Skubal), 6:40 PM - BOS at CWS (Payton Tolle vs Noah Schultz), 7:40 PM - COL at LAD (Michael Lorenzen vs Justin Wrobleski), 10:10 PM ## Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals *Jacob Misiorowski (RHP): 53% NRFI, 1.47 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. Michael McGreevy (RHP): 71% NRFI, 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. First pitch 2:15 PM ET at Busch Stadium (455 ft).* Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Jacob Misiorowski runs a 2.3 BB/9 and Michael McGreevy a 2.1 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Jacob Misiorowski is the softer side at 53% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. His 2.1 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .774 OPS in that split, so Michael McGreevy cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Houston Astros at Washington Nationals *Tatsuya Imai (RHP): 42% NRFI, 6.14 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 5.6 BB/9. Andrew Alvarez (LHP): 80% NRFI, 3.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. First pitch 6:45 PM ET at Nationals Park (25 ft).* Andrew Alvarez can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.5 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Tatsuya Imai is the softer side at 42% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. He arrives on a run of 3 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the Washington Nationals lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .761 OPS in that split, so Tatsuya Imai cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Tatsuya Imai's 5.6 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Honorable Mentions - **Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers:** a combined 42.5% NRFI rate. - **Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds:** a combined 42.5% NRFI rate. - **Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles:** a combined 49% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Athletics at Detroit Tigers.** Tarik Skubal has surrendered a run in the first in 8 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 9% season rate. We are passing here. **Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox.** Noah Schultz has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 44% season rate. Leave this one alone. **Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers.** Justin Wrobleski is the weak link at 36% NRFI, and the combined 43% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-7-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*