# MLB NRFI Picks: July 6, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for July 6, 2026. 8 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Cam Schlittler vs Griffin Jax leading the board. **Date:** 2026-07-06 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-6-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, July 6, 2026** are NYY @ TB (Score: 72, 61.5% combined NRFI rate, Cam Schlittler vs Griffin Jax), MIL @ STL (Score: 66, 63.5% combined NRFI rate, Shane Drohan vs Dustin May), TOR @ SF (Score: 64, 60.5% combined NRFI rate, Kevin Gausman vs Landen Roupp). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's eight factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: July 6, 2026 8 games, every starter evaluated. These are tonight's best NRFI plays. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for July 5](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-5-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYY at TB (Cam Schlittler vs Griffin Jax), 6:40 PM - MIL at STL (Shane Drohan vs Dustin May), 7:45 PM - TOR at SF (Kevin Gausman vs Landen Roupp), 9:45 PM - PHI at KC (Cristopher Sánchez vs Noah Cameron), 2:10 PM - HOU at WSH (Mike Burrows vs Miles Mikolas), 6:45 PM - AZ at SD (Brandon Pfaadt vs Walker Buehler), 9:40 PM - COL at LAD (Kyle Freeland vs Eric Lauer), 10:10 PM - NYM at ATL (Freddy Peralta vs Reynaldo López), 7:15 PM ## New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays *Cam Schlittler (RHP): 56% NRFI, 2.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. Griffin Jax (RHP): 67% NRFI, 3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at Tropicana Field, indoor.* Griffin Jax anchors this one at 67% NRFI, and the combined 61.5% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Cam Schlittler is the softer side at 56% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Griffin Jax is trending up as well, a 1.73 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.45 season mark. The pressure point is the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .747 OPS in that split, so Cam Schlittler cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals *Shane Drohan (LHP): 71% NRFI, 3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9. Dustin May (RHP): 56% NRFI, 4.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9. First pitch 7:45 PM ET at Busch Stadium (455 ft).* Shane Drohan anchors this one at 71% NRFI, and the combined 63.5% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Dustin May is the softer side at 56% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The pressure point is the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .774 OPS in that split, so Dustin May cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants *Kevin Gausman (RHP): 50% NRFI, 4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Landen Roupp (RHP): 71% NRFI, 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9. First pitch 9:45 PM ET at Oracle Park (5 ft).* Landen Roupp can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.0 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Kevin Gausman is the softer side at 50% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The pressure point is the San Francisco Giants lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .792 OPS in that split, so Kevin Gausman cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Honorable Mentions - **Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals:** Noah Cameron sitting at 75% NRFI. - **Houston Astros at Washington Nationals:** Miles Mikolas sitting at 71% NRFI. - **Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres:** Walker Buehler sitting at 76% NRFI. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers.** Eric Lauer is the weak link at 18% NRFI, and the combined 24.5% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. We are passing here. **New York Mets at Atlanta Braves.** Reynaldo López has surrendered a run in the first in 6 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 14% season rate. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-6-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*