# MLB NRFI Picks Today (July 5, 2026): Best No Run First Inning Bets > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (15 games). Pitching matchups, command, venue and weather scored across eight factors to surface the best scorele **Date:** 2026-07-05 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-5-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, July 5, 2026** are TB @ HOU (Score: 70, 60.5% combined NRFI rate, Griffin Jax vs Peter Lambert), NYM @ ATL (Score: 68, 58% combined NRFI rate, Nolan McLean vs Martín Pérez), BAL @ CIN (Score: 66, 68% combined NRFI rate, Kyle Bradish vs Nick Lodolo). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's eight factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: July 5, 2026 15 games tonight. Here are the pitching matchups most likely to keep the first inning scoreless. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for July 4](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-4-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB at HOU (Griffin Jax vs Peter Lambert), 3:30 PM - NYM at ATL (Nolan McLean vs Martín Pérez), 12:30 PM - BAL at CIN (Kyle Bradish vs Nick Lodolo), 1:05 PM - MIA at ATH (Eury Pérez vs Gage Jump), 4:30 PM - STL at CHC (Matthew Liberatore vs Javier Assad), 2:30 PM - TOR at SEA (Trey Yesavage vs Emerson Hancock), 5:00 PM - PHI at KC (Aaron Nola vs Luinder Avila), 3:00 PM - SF at COL (Tyler Mahle vs Tanner Gordon), 4:00 PM - BOS at LAA (Ranger Suarez vs Ryan Johnson), 9:30 PM ## Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros *Griffin Jax (RHP): 67% NRFI, 3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. Peter Lambert (RHP): 54% NRFI, 3.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 3:30 PM ET at Daikin Park, indoor.* Griffin Jax anchors this one at 67% NRFI, and the combined 60.5% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Peter Lambert is the softer side at 54% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Griffin Jax is trending up as well, a 1.73 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.45 season mark. The pressure point is the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .752 OPS in that split, so Peter Lambert cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## New York Mets at Atlanta Braves *Nolan McLean (RHP): 47% NRFI, 3.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Martín Pérez (LHP): 69% NRFI, 3.27 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. First pitch 12:30 PM ET at Truist Park (1,050 ft).* Martín Pérez anchors this one at 69% NRFI, and the combined 58% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Nolan McLean is the softer side at 47% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. He arrives on a run of 7 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the Atlanta Braves lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .754 OPS in that split, so Nolan McLean cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds *Kyle Bradish (RHP): 76% NRFI, 3.77 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 4.5 BB/9. Nick Lodolo (LHP): 60% NRFI, 5.05 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9. First pitch 1:05 PM ET at Great American Ball Park (490 ft).* Kyle Bradish is the reason to look here, a 76% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Nick Lodolo is the softer side at 60% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The loose thread is Nick Lodolo's 3.9 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Honorable Mentions - **Miami Marlins at Athletics:** Gage Jump sitting at 71% NRFI. - **St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs:** Javier Assad riding a run of 4 scoreless first innings. - **Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners:** a combined 49% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals.** Luinder Avila has surrendered a run in the first in 7 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 0% season rate. This is a spot to skip. **San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. Leave this one alone. **Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels.** Ryan Johnson has surrendered a run in the first in 4 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 0% season rate. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-5-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*