# MLB NRFI Picks Today (July 4, 2026): Best No Run First Inning Bets > No Run First Inning picks for July 4, 2026. 15 games analyzed through eight pitching and venue factors to find tonight's best NRFI spots. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-07-04 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-4-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Saturday, July 4, 2026** are STL @ CHC (Score: 74, 67% combined NRFI rate, Kyle Leahy vs Shota Imanaga), TB @ HOU (Score: 74, 52% combined NRFI rate, Drew Rasmussen vs Hunter Brown), BAL @ CIN (Score: 71, 54.5% combined NRFI rate, Brandon Young vs Hunter Greene). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's eight factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: July 4, 2026 A slate of 15 games, scored for NRFI value. These are the cleanest first inning spots on the board. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for July 3](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-3-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL at CHC (Kyle Leahy vs Shota Imanaga), 8:08 PM - TB at HOU (Drew Rasmussen vs Hunter Brown), 7:10 PM - BAL at CIN (Brandon Young vs Hunter Greene), 7:10 PM - NYM at ATL (Sean Manaea vs Chris Sale), 8:08 PM - MIL at AZ (Brandon Woodruff vs Merrill Kelly), 9:40 PM - PHI at KC (Jesús Luzardo vs Michael Wacha), 8:10 PM - TOR at SEA (Shane Bieber vs Logan Gilbert), 4:10 PM - PIT at WSH (Braxton Ashcraft vs Carson Palmquist), 11:05 AM - SF at COL (Robbie Ray vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 8:10 PM ## St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs *Kyle Leahy (RHP): 63% NRFI, 4.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Shota Imanaga (LHP): 71% NRFI, 4.30 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 8:08 PM ET at Wrigley Field (600 ft).* Shota Imanaga anchors this one at 71% NRFI, and the combined 67% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. On the other side, Kyle Leahy is no pushover either at 63% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. His 2.1 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Chicago Cubs lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .752 OPS in that split, so Kyle Leahy cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros *Drew Rasmussen (RHP): 44% NRFI, 2.45 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9. Hunter Brown (RHP): 60% NRFI, 1.78 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:10 PM ET at Daikin Park, indoor.* Hunter Brown can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 11.5 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Drew Rasmussen is the softer side at 44% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The pressure point is the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .753 OPS in that split, so Hunter Brown cannot afford a sloppy first. A thin NRFI lean at best. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds *Brandon Young (RHP): 46% NRFI, 3.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Hunter Greene (RHP): 63% NRFI, 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 6. First pitch 7:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park (490 ft).* Hunter Greene can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 11.1 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Brandon Young is the softer side at 46% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. His 2.2 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. There is a small NRFI edge, nothing more, so size it lightly. ## Honorable Mentions - **New York Mets at Atlanta Braves:** Chris Sale riding a run of 5 scoreless first innings. - **Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks:** a combined 60% NRFI rate. - **Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals:** Michael Wacha riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners.** Shane Bieber has not shown the early command to trust, a 4.0 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. This is a spot to skip. **Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals.** Carson Palmquist is the weak link at 0% NRFI, and the combined 26.5% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust. **San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. We are passing here. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-4-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*