# MLB NRFI Picks: July 31, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for July 31, 2026. 15 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Carson Whisenhunt vs Bradgley Rodriguez leading the board. **Date:** 2026-07-31 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-31-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Friday, July 31, 2026** are SF @ SD (Score: 68, 68% NRFI probability, Carson Whisenhunt vs Bradgley Rodriguez), WSH @ ATL (Score: 57, 57% NRFI probability, Foster Griffin vs Bryce Elder), MIA @ NYM (Score: 57, 57% NRFI probability, Janson Junk vs Freddy Peralta). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: July 31, 2026 A slate of 15 games, scored for NRFI value. These are the cleanest first inning spots on the board. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for July 30](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-30-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SF at SD (Carson Whisenhunt vs Bradgley Rodriguez), 9:45 PM - WSH at ATL (Foster Griffin vs Bryce Elder), 7:15 PM - MIA at NYM (Janson Junk vs Freddy Peralta), 7:10 PM - BOS at LAD (Ranger Suarez vs Edgardo Henriquez), 10:10 PM - NYY at CHC (Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga), 2:20 PM - STL at TOR (Kyle Leahy vs Dylan Cease), 7:07 PM - KC at COL (Michael Wacha vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 8:40 PM - PIT at CIN (Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene), 6:10 PM - CWS at TB (Erick Fedde vs Nick Martinez), 7:10 PM ## San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres *Carson Whisenhunt (LHP): 0% NRFI, 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.7 BB/9. Bradgley Rodriguez (RHP): 67% NRFI, 2.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. First pitch 9:45 PM ET at Petco Park (15 ft).* Bradgley Rodriguez anchors this one at 67% NRFI, and the combined 68% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Carson Whisenhunt is the softer side at 0% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Bradgley Rodriguez is trending up as well, a 0.00 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.33 season mark. The pressure point is the San Francisco Giants lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .753 OPS in that split, so Bradgley Rodriguez cannot afford a sloppy first. Worth flagging that Carson Whisenhunt has been touched for a run in the first in 3 straight, so the season rate is doing the arguing here, not the last month. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves *Foster Griffin (LHP): 62% NRFI, 2.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Bryce Elder (RHP): 55% NRFI, 3.96 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 7:15 PM ET at Truist Park (1,050 ft).* Foster Griffin anchors this one at 62% NRFI, and the combined 57% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Bryce Elder is the softer side at 55% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Foster Griffin is trending up as well, a 1.68 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.76 season mark. The pressure point is the Washington Nationals lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .757 OPS in that split, so Bryce Elder cannot afford a sloppy first. There is a small NRFI edge, nothing more, so size it lightly. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Miami Marlins at New York Mets *Janson Junk (RHP): 64% NRFI, 4.89 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Freddy Peralta (RHP): 55% NRFI, 4.99 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. First pitch 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field (20 ft).* Janson Junk anchors this one at 64% NRFI, and the combined 57% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Freddy Peralta is the softer side at 55% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Janson Junk arrives on a run of 3 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the Miami Marlins lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .782 OPS in that split, so Freddy Peralta cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Freddy Peralta's 3.8 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. There is a small NRFI edge, nothing more, so size it lightly. ## Honorable Mentions - **Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers:** a combined 55% NRFI rate. - **New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs:** a combined 54% NRFI rate. - **St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays:** Kyle Leahy riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. This is a spot to skip. **Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds.** Hunter Greene's 7.06 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. We are passing here. **Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays.** Erick Fedde has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 38% season rate. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-31-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*