# MLB NRFI Picks: July 28, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for July 28, 2026. 16 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump leading the board. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-07-28 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-28-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Tuesday, July 28, 2026** are BOS @ ATH (Score: 78, 78% NRFI probability, Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump), CLE @ CIN (Score: 68, 68% NRFI probability, Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns), MIL @ SF (Score: 68, 68% NRFI probability, Logan Henderson vs Landen Roupp). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: July 28, 2026 The board runs 16 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for July 27](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-27-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS at ATH (Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump), 9:40 PM - CLE at CIN (Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns), 1:40 PM - MIL at SF (Logan Henderson vs Landen Roupp), 9:45 PM - CHC at STL (Colin Rea vs Michael McGreevy), 7:45 PM - ATL at NYM (Chris Sale vs Christian Scott), 7:10 PM - PHI at MIA (Aaron Nola vs Sandy Alcantara), 6:40 PM - KC at MIN (Seth Lugo vs Taj Bradley), 7:40 PM - BAL at DET (Dean Kremer vs Troy Melton), 6:40 PM - TOR at WSH (Shane Bieber vs Cade Cavalli), 6:45 PM ## Boston Red Sox at Athletics *Jake Bennett (LHP): 80% NRFI, 2.58 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 1.4 BB/9. Gage Jump (LHP): 73% NRFI, 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Sutter Health Park (0 ft).* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Jake Bennett (80% NRFI) and Gage Jump (73%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 78% combined rate is the proof. Jake Bennett is trending up as well, a 1.71 ERA across his last five starts against a 2.58 season mark. The pressure point is the Boston Red Sox lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .803 OPS in that split, so Gage Jump cannot afford a sloppy first. This is a clean first inning waiting to happen. ## Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds *Slade Cecconi (RHP): 55% NRFI, 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. Chase Burns (RHP): 58% NRFI, 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9. First pitch 1:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park (490 ft).* Chase Burns can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.4 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Slade Cecconi is the softer side at 55% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants *Logan Henderson (RHP): 75% NRFI, 3.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Landen Roupp (RHP): 70% NRFI, 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 9:45 PM ET at Oracle Park (5 ft).* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Logan Henderson (75% NRFI) and Landen Roupp (70%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 68% combined rate is the proof. Logan Henderson is trending up as well, a 2.51 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.05 season mark. The pressure point is the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .765 OPS in that split, so Landen Roupp cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Honorable Mentions - **Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals:** a combined 63% NRFI rate. - **Atlanta Braves at New York Mets:** Chris Sale riding a run of 9 scoreless first innings. - **Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins:** Sandy Alcantara riding a run of 6 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins.** Taj Bradley is the weak link at 40% NRFI, and the combined 31% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Leave this one alone. **Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers.** Dean Kremer's 5.06 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. This is a spot to skip. **Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals.** Shane Bieber is the weak link at 33% NRFI, and the combined 36% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. We are passing here. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-28-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*