# MLB NRFI Picks: July 23, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (5 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into a **Date:** 2026-07-23 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Thursday, July 23, 2026** are AZ @ STL (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Brandon Pfaadt vs Michael McGreevy), SD @ ATL (Score: 60, 60% NRFI probability, Kyle Hart vs Chris Sale), MIN @ CLE (Score: 46, 46% NRFI probability, Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: July 23, 2026 Tonight's 5 games, ranked by first inning scoreless probability. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for July 22](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - AZ at STL (Brandon Pfaadt vs Michael McGreevy), 5:15 PM - SD at ATL (Kyle Hart vs Chris Sale), 12:15 PM - MIN at CLE (Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams), 1:10 PM - KC at DET (Randy Dobnak vs Troy Melton), 6:40 PM - TB at TOR (Casey Legumina vs Shane Bieber), 3:07 PM ## Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals *Brandon Pfaadt (RHP): 43% NRFI, 4.58 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Michael McGreevy (RHP): 63% NRFI, 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9. First pitch 5:15 PM ET at Busch Stadium (455 ft).* Michael McGreevy anchors this one at 63% NRFI, and the combined 64% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Brandon Pfaadt is the softer side at 43% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Michael McGreevy's 2.0 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves *Kyle Hart (LHP): 100% NRFI, 5.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Chris Sale (LHP): 72% NRFI, 2.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 8. First pitch 12:15 PM ET at Truist Park (1,050 ft).* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Kyle Hart (100% NRFI) and Chris Sale (72%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 60% combined rate is the proof. Kyle Hart is trending up as well, a 4.50 ERA across his last five starts against a 5.66 season mark. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians *Taj Bradley (RHP): 37% NRFI, 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9. Gavin Williams (RHP): 65% NRFI, 4.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 5. First pitch 1:10 PM ET at Progressive Field (660 ft).* Gavin Williams can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 11.0 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Taj Bradley is the softer side at 37% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Gavin Williams arrives on a run of 5 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the Minnesota Twins lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .765 OPS in that split, so Gavin Williams cannot afford a sloppy first. There is a small NRFI edge, nothing more, so size it lightly. ## Honorable Mentions - **Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers:** a combined 44% NRFI rate. - **Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays:** a combined 42% NRFI rate. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-23-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*