# MLB NRFI Picks: August 9, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > No Run First Inning picks for August 9, 2026. 15 games scored for joint first-inning scoreless probability to find tonight's best NRFI spots. **Date:** 2026-08-09 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-9-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, August 9, 2026** are CLE @ CWS (Score: 67, 67% NRFI probability, Joey Cantillo vs Davis Martin), CHC @ KC (Score: 65, 65% NRFI probability, Matthew Boyd vs Randy Dobnak), TB @ SEA (Score: 65, 65% NRFI probability, Ian Seymour vs Emerson Hancock). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 9, 2026 The board runs 15 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 8](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-8-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CLE at CWS (Joey Cantillo vs Davis Martin), 2:10 PM - CHC at KC (Matthew Boyd vs Randy Dobnak), 2:10 PM - TB at SEA (Ian Seymour vs Emerson Hancock), 4:10 PM - ATH at BOS (J.T. Ginn vs Erik Miller), 1:35 PM - ATL at NYY (Grant Holmes vs Cam Schlittler), 1:35 PM - DET at SF (Troy Melton vs Logan Webb), 4:05 PM - BAL at TEX (Cade Povich vs Kumar Rocker), 2:35 PM - LAD at AZ (Justin Wrobleski vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 4:10 PM - CIN at WSH (Brady Singer vs Brad Lord), 12:15 PM ## Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox *Joey Cantillo (LHP): 67% NRFI, 3.87 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Davis Martin (RHP): 50% NRFI, 4.13 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. First pitch 2:10 PM ET at Rate Field (595 ft).* Joey Cantillo anchors this one at 67% NRFI, and the combined 67% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Davis Martin is the softer side at 50% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Joey Cantillo arrives on a run of 4 straight scoreless first innings. Worth flagging that Davis Martin has been touched for a run in the first in 3 straight, so the season rate is doing the arguing here, not the last month. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals *Matthew Boyd (LHP): 54% NRFI, 3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9. Randy Dobnak (RHP): 50% NRFI, 1.16 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. First pitch 2:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium (750 ft).* Matthew Boyd anchors this one at 54% NRFI, and the combined 65% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Randy Dobnak is the softer side at 50% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Matthew Boyd is trending up as well, a 2.79 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.59 season mark. The pressure point is the Kansas City Royals lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .745 OPS in that split, so Matthew Boyd cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners *Ian Seymour (LHP): 38% NRFI, 4.27 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. Emerson Hancock (RHP): 62% NRFI, 3.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 4:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park, indoor.* Emerson Hancock anchors this one at 62% NRFI, and the combined 65% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Ian Seymour is the softer side at 38% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Emerson Hancock's 2.2 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .768 OPS in that split, so Emerson Hancock cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Honorable Mentions - **Athletics at Boston Red Sox:** a combined 62% NRFI rate. - **Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees:** Grant Holmes riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. - **Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants:** Logan Webb sitting at 70% NRFI. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers.** Kumar Rocker is the weak link at 21% NRFI, and the combined 36% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Leave this one alone. **Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks.** Justin Wrobleski has surrendered a run in the first in 6 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 28% season rate. Leave this one alone. **Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals.** Brad Lord is the weak link at 0% NRFI, and the combined 43% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Leave this one alone. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-9-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*