# MLB NRFI Picks: August 6, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (11 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into **Date:** 2026-08-06 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-6-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Thursday, August 6, 2026** are NYM @ CLE (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Nolan McLean vs Foster Griffin), SD @ AZ (Score: 61, 61% NRFI probability, Walker Buehler vs Kohl Drake), MIN @ KC (Score: 58, 58% NRFI probability, Bailey Ober vs Michael Wacha). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 6, 2026 NRFI targets across 11 games, built on pitching matchups, command, and venue. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 5](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-5-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYM at CLE (Nolan McLean vs Foster Griffin), 1:10 PM - SD at AZ (Walker Buehler vs Kohl Drake), 9:40 PM - MIN at KC (Bailey Ober vs Michael Wacha), 7:40 PM - DET at SEA (Framber Valdez vs Bryce Miller), 4:10 PM - MIA at ATL (Janson Junk vs Martín Pérez), 7:15 PM - PIT at MIL (Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May), 2:10 PM - WSH at PHI (Miles Mikolas vs Cristopher Sánchez), 6:05 PM - TOR at CHC (Dylan Cease vs David Peterson), 2:20 PM - LAA at BAL (Ryan Johnson vs Brandon Young), 12:35 PM ## New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians *Nolan McLean (RHP): 45% NRFI, 3.29 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Foster Griffin (LHP): 59% NRFI, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. First pitch 1:10 PM ET at Progressive Field (660 ft).* Foster Griffin anchors this one at 59% NRFI, and the combined 64% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Nolan McLean is the softer side at 45% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Foster Griffin's 2.1 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks *Walker Buehler (RHP): 64% NRFI, 5.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. Kohl Drake (LHP): 0% NRFI, 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Chase Field (0 ft).* Walker Buehler anchors this one at 64% NRFI, and the combined 61% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Kohl Drake is the concern here with a 0% NRFI rate in his sample, the model regresses that toward the league mean, but the raw results flag early-inning vulnerability. The bet leans on the stronger arm holding the line. It helps that the San Diego Padres lineup has been quiet against LHP this year at a .662 OPS, which gives Kohl Drake margin in the opening frame. Worth flagging that Kohl Drake has been touched for a run in the first in 3 straight, so the season rate is doing the arguing here, not the last month. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals *Bailey Ober (RHP): 44% NRFI, 4.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Michael Wacha (RHP): 55% NRFI, 3.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9. First pitch 7:40 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium (750 ft).* Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Bailey Ober runs a 2.5 BB/9 and Michael Wacha a 2.5 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Bailey Ober is the softer side at 44% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Honorable Mentions - **Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners:** a combined 55% NRFI rate. - **Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves:** Janson Junk riding a run of 4 scoreless first innings. - **Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers:** Dustin May riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies.** Cristopher Sánchez is the weak link at 48% NRFI, and the combined 44% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. **Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs.** David Peterson has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 29% season rate. This is a spot to skip. **Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles.** Ryan Johnson's 7.63 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. This is a spot to skip. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-6-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*