# MLB NRFI Picks: August 5, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > No Run First Inning picks for August 5, 2026. 15 games scored for joint first-inning scoreless probability to find tonight's best NRFI spots. **Date:** 2026-08-05 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-5-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Wednesday, August 5, 2026** are SD @ AZ (Score: 68, 68% NRFI probability, Casey Mize vs Mitch Bratt), LAA @ BAL (Score: 62, 62% NRFI probability, Reid Detmers vs Trevor Rogers), DET @ SEA (Score: 60, 60% NRFI probability, Drew Anderson vs Bryan Woo). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 5, 2026 The board runs 15 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 4](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-4-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD at AZ (Casey Mize vs Mitch Bratt), 9:40 PM - LAA at BAL (Reid Detmers vs Trevor Rogers), 6:35 PM - DET at SEA (Drew Anderson vs Bryan Woo), 9:40 PM - ATH at CIN (Jacob Lopez vs Rhett Lowder), 6:40 PM - NYM at CLE (Christian Scott vs Tanner Bibee), 6:40 PM - TOR at HOU (Jameson Taillon vs Hunter Brown), 2:10 PM - TB at COL (Nick Martinez vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 3:10 PM - MIN at KC (Dean Kremer vs Noah Cameron), 7:40 PM - WSH at PHI (Jake Irvin vs Andrew Painter), 6:40 PM ## San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks *Casey Mize (RHP): 75% NRFI, 2.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Mitch Bratt (LHP): 60% NRFI, 5.23 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 6.7 BB/9. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Chase Field (0 ft).* Casey Mize is the reason to look here, a 75% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Mitch Bratt is the softer side at 60% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Casey Mize's 2.0 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The loose thread is Mitch Bratt's 6.7 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles *Reid Detmers (LHP): 45% NRFI, 4.03 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. Trevor Rogers (LHP): 70% NRFI, 4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. First pitch 6:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30 ft).* Trevor Rogers anchors this one at 70% NRFI, and the combined 62% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Reid Detmers is the softer side at 45% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Trevor Rogers is trending up as well, a 2.39 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.27 season mark. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners *Drew Anderson (RHP): 0% NRFI, 4.24 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9. Bryan Woo (RHP): 48% NRFI, 4.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park, indoor.* Bryan Woo anchors this one at 48% NRFI, and the combined 60% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Drew Anderson is the concern here with a 0% NRFI rate in his sample — the model regresses that toward the league mean, but the raw results flag early-inning vulnerability. The bet leans on the stronger arm holding the line. Bryan Woo's 1.9 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Detroit Tigers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .765 OPS in that split, so Bryan Woo cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Honorable Mentions - **Athletics at Cincinnati Reds:** Jacob Lopez riding a run of 4 scoreless first innings. - **New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians:** Christian Scott riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. - **Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros:** Hunter Brown riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. This is a spot to skip. **Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals.** Dean Kremer has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 29% season rate. Leave this one alone. **Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies.** Jake Irvin's 5.56 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-5-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*