# MLB NRFI Picks: August 3, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for August 3, 2026. 8 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Michael King vs Brandon Pfaadt leading the board. **Date:** 2026-08-03 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-3-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, August 3, 2026** are SD @ AZ (Score: 68, 68% NRFI probability, Michael King vs Brandon Pfaadt), STL @ NYY (Score: 66, 66% NRFI probability, Michael McGreevy vs Cam Schlittler), WSH @ PHI (Score: 60, 60% NRFI probability, Andrew Alvarez vs Aaron Nola). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 3, 2026 A slate of 8 games, scored for NRFI value. These are the cleanest first inning spots on the board. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 2](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-2-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD at AZ (Michael King vs Brandon Pfaadt), 9:40 PM - STL at NYY (Michael McGreevy vs Cam Schlittler), 7:05 PM - WSH at PHI (Andrew Alvarez vs Aaron Nola), 6:40 PM - PIT at MIL (Bubba Chandler vs Brandon Sproat), 7:40 PM - TOR at HOU (Shane Bieber vs Cristian Javier), 8:10 PM - TB at COL (Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen), 8:40 PM ## San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks *Michael King (RHP): 68% NRFI, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP): 33% NRFI, 4.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Chase Field (0 ft).* Michael King anchors this one at 68% NRFI, and the combined 68% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Brandon Pfaadt is the softer side at 33% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Michael King is trending up as well, a 2.79 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.38 season mark. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees *Michael McGreevy (RHP): 57% NRFI, 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. Cam Schlittler (RHP): 57% NRFI, 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9. First pitch 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium (55 ft).* Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Michael McGreevy runs a 2.3 BB/9 and Cam Schlittler a 1.7 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Cam Schlittler is the softer side at 57% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Michael McGreevy's 2.3 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies *Andrew Alvarez (LHP): 57% NRFI, 4.06 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 4.4 BB/9. Aaron Nola (RHP): 45% NRFI, 5.61 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park (20 ft).* Andrew Alvarez anchors this one at 57% NRFI, and the combined 60% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Aaron Nola is the softer side at 45% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Honorable Mentions - **Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers:** a combined 52% NRFI rate. - **Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros:** Cristian Javier sitting at 75% NRFI. - **Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies:** Ian Seymour riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-3-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*