# MLB NRFI Picks: August 28, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (15 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into **Date:** 2026-08-28 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-28-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Friday, August 28, 2026** are SD @ TB (Score: 80, 80% NRFI probability, Casey Mize vs Shane McClanahan), BOS @ NYY (Score: 66, 66% NRFI probability, Patrick Sandoval vs Cam Schlittler), BAL @ ATH (Score: 62, 62% NRFI probability, Brandon Young vs Jacob Lopez). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 28, 2026 NRFI targets across 15 games, built on pitching matchups, command, and venue. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 27](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-27-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD at TB (Casey Mize vs Shane McClanahan), 7:10 PM - BOS at NYY (Patrick Sandoval vs Cam Schlittler), 7:15 PM - BAL at ATH (Brandon Young vs Jacob Lopez), 9:40 PM - TEX at MIL (Cody Bradford vs Logan Henderson), 7:40 PM - KC at CLE (Michael Wacha vs Tanner Bibee), 7:10 PM - SEA at TOR (Emerson Hancock vs Dylan Cease), 7:15 PM - CWS at MIN (Luis Castillo vs Dean Kremer), 8:10 PM - COL at ATL (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Grant Holmes), 7:15 PM - MIA at WSH (Eury Pérez vs Jackson Kent), 6:45 PM ## San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays *Casey Mize (RHP): 95% NRFI, 3.44 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9. Shane McClanahan (LHP): 86% NRFI, 3.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. First pitch 7:10 PM ET at Tropicana Field, indoor.* Both arms walk into Tropicana Field capable of a clean opening frame, Casey Mize at 95% NRFI on the year and Shane McClanahan at 86%, a combined 80% that ranks among the best on the board. Casey Mize's 2.2 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .768 OPS in that split, so Casey Mize cannot afford a sloppy first. This is a clean first inning waiting to happen. ## Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees *Patrick Sandoval (LHP): 75% NRFI, 4.54 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9. Cam Schlittler (RHP): 85% NRFI, 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. First pitch 7:15 PM ET at Yankee Stadium (55 ft).* Cam Schlittler can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 11.0 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. On the other side, Patrick Sandoval is no pushover either at 75% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Cam Schlittler's 2.1 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Boston Red Sox lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .754 OPS in that split, so Cam Schlittler cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Patrick Sandoval's 4.1 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Baltimore Orioles at Athletics *Brandon Young (RHP): 73% NRFI, 3.50 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Jacob Lopez (LHP): 83% NRFI, 4.98 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Sutter Health Park (26 ft).* Jacob Lopez anchors this one at 83% NRFI, and the combined 62% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Brandon Young is the softer side at 73% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Jacob Lopez is trending up as well, a 2.47 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.98 season mark. It helps that the Baltimore Orioles lineup has been quiet against LHP this year at a .666 OPS, which gives Jacob Lopez margin in the opening frame. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Honorable Mentions - **Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers:** Logan Henderson sitting at 85% NRFI. - **Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians:** Tanner Bibee riding a run of 8 scoreless first innings. - **Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays:** Dylan Cease riding a run of 9 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins.** Dean Kremer's 5.22 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. This is a spot to skip. **Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves.** Tomoyuki Sugano is the weak link at 52% NRFI, and the combined 36% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. **Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals.** Jackson Kent has not shown the early command to trust, a 7.0 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. This is a spot to skip. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-28-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*