# MLB NRFI Picks: August 26, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Best NRFI bets tonight across the MLB slate (15 games). Pitcher first-inning suppression, lineup first-inning offense and venue combined to find the top plays. **Date:** 2026-08-26 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-26-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Wednesday, August 26, 2026** are KC @ TOR (Score: 73, 73% NRFI probability, Randy Dobnak vs Spencer Miles), BAL @ STL (Score: 72, 72% NRFI probability, Kyle Bradish vs Michael McGreevy), PHI @ SEA (Score: 72, 72% NRFI probability, Jesús Luzardo vs Bryan Woo). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 26, 2026 NRFI targets across 15 games, built on pitching matchups, command, and venue. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 25](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-25-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - KC at TOR (Randy Dobnak vs Spencer Miles), 7:07 PM - BAL at STL (Kyle Bradish vs Michael McGreevy), 7:45 PM - PHI at SEA (Jesús Luzardo vs Bryan Woo), 4:10 PM - CIN at SF (Nick Lodolo vs Landen Roupp), 3:45 PM - LAD at ATL (Roki Sasaki vs AJ Smith-Shawver), 7:15 PM - BOS at MIA (Sonny Gray vs Ryan Gusto), 6:40 PM - TB at DET (Freddy Peralta vs Troy Melton), 1:10 PM - COL at WSH (Tanner Gordon vs Matt Waldron), 6:45 PM - MIN at ATH (Connor Prielipp vs J.T. Ginn), 9:05 PM ## Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays *Randy Dobnak (RHP): 86% NRFI, 1.58 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Spencer Miles (RHP): 100% NRFI, 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. First pitch 7:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre, indoor.* Both arms walk into Rogers Centre capable of a clean opening frame, Randy Dobnak at 86% NRFI on the year and Spencer Miles at 100%, a combined 73% that ranks among the best on the board. Spencer Miles's 2.2 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The loose thread is Randy Dobnak's 4.0 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. This is a clean first inning waiting to happen. ## Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals *Kyle Bradish (RHP): 92% NRFI, 3.70 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, NRFI streak of 11. Michael McGreevy (RHP): 80% NRFI, 3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 7:45 PM ET at Busch Stadium (455 ft).* Kyle Bradish is the reason to look here, a 92% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. On the other side, Michael McGreevy is no pushover either at 80% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Kyle Bradish arrives on a run of 11 straight scoreless first innings. This is a clean first inning waiting to happen. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners *Jesús Luzardo (LHP): 92% NRFI, 3.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. Bryan Woo (RHP): 83% NRFI, 4.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. First pitch 4:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park, indoor.* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Jesús Luzardo (92% NRFI) and Bryan Woo (83%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 72% combined rate is the proof. The pressure point is the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .769 OPS in that split, so Bryan Woo cannot afford a sloppy first. This is a clean first inning waiting to happen. ## Honorable Mentions - **Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants:** a combined 66% NRFI rate. - **Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves:** Roki Sasaki riding a run of 7 scoreless first innings. - **Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins:** Sonny Gray riding a run of 11 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers.** Freddy Peralta's 5.33 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. Leave this one alone. **Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals.** Tanner Gordon's 5.75 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. Not a first inning to trust. **Minnesota Twins at Athletics.** Connor Prielipp's 5.57 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. This is a spot to skip. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-26-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*