# MLB NRFI Picks: August 25, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for August 25, 2026. 15 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Paul Skenes vs Michael King leading the board. **Date:** 2026-08-25 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Tuesday, August 25, 2026** are PIT @ SD (Score: 68, 68% NRFI probability, Paul Skenes vs Michael King), CLE @ LAA (Score: 65, 65% NRFI probability, Gavin Williams vs Walbert Ureña), COL @ WSH (Score: 62, 62% NRFI probability, Mason Adams vs Andrew Alvarez). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 25, 2026 The board runs 15 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 24](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PIT at SD (Paul Skenes vs Michael King), 9:40 PM - CLE at LAA (Gavin Williams vs Walbert Ureña), 9:38 PM - COL at WSH (Mason Adams vs Andrew Alvarez), 6:45 PM - CHC at AZ (Clay Holmes vs Brandon Pfaadt), 9:40 PM - BOS at MIA (Payton Tolle vs Tyler Phillips), 6:40 PM - LAD at ATL (Tyler Glasnow vs Bryce Elder), 7:15 PM - CIN at SF (Brady Singer vs Adrian Houser), 9:45 PM - KC at TOR (Seth Lugo vs Max Scherzer), 7:07 PM - BAL at STL (Chris Bassitt vs Matthew Liberatore), 7:45 PM ## Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres *Paul Skenes (RHP): 73% NRFI, 3.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Michael King (RHP): 88% NRFI, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 5. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Petco Park (15 ft).* Michael King is the reason to look here, a 88% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Paul Skenes is the softer side at 73% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Michael King arrives on a run of 5 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .745 OPS in that split, so Michael King cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels *Gavin Williams (RHP): 77% NRFI, 3.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Walbert Ureña (RHP): 90% NRFI, 2.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 10. First pitch 9:38 PM ET at Angel Stadium (160 ft).* Walbert Ureña is the reason to look here, a 90% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Gavin Williams holds up his end too, a 77% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Walbert Ureña arrives on a run of 10 straight scoreless first innings. It helps that the Los Angeles Angels lineup has been quiet against RHP this year at a .653 OPS, which gives Gavin Williams margin in the opening frame. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals *Mason Adams (RHP): 0% NRFI. Andrew Alvarez (LHP): 100% NRFI, 3.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 11. First pitch 6:45 PM ET at Nationals Park (25 ft).* Andrew Alvarez is the reason to look here, a 100% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Mason Adams is the concern here with a 0% NRFI rate in his sample, the model regresses that toward the league mean, but the raw results flag early-inning vulnerability. The bet leans on the stronger arm holding the line. Andrew Alvarez arrives on a run of 11 straight scoreless first innings. Mason Adams's 0% NRFI rate across 0 starts is worth noting, the model applies shrinkage, but the raw results suggest caution on this side. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Honorable Mentions - **Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks:** a combined 58% NRFI rate. - **Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins:** Payton Tolle riding a run of 4 scoreless first innings. - **Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves:** a combined 50% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants.** Adrian Houser is the weak link at 31% NRFI, and the combined 33% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. We are passing here. **Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays.** Max Scherzer has not shown the early command to trust, a 4.0 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. Not a first inning to trust. **Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals.** Chris Bassitt's 5.08 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. This is a spot to skip. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-25-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*