# MLB NRFI Picks: August 25, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for August 25, 2026. 15 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Paul Skenes vs Michael King leading the board. **Date:** 2026-08-25 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Tuesday, August 25, 2026** are PIT @ SD (Score: 67, 67% NRFI probability, Paul Skenes vs Michael King), CLE @ LAA (Score: 65, 65% NRFI probability, Gavin Williams vs Walbert Ureña), CIN @ SF (Score: 58, 58% NRFI probability, Brady Singer vs Landen Roupp). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 25, 2026 The board runs 15 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 24](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PIT at SD (Paul Skenes vs Michael King), 9:40 PM - CLE at LAA (Gavin Williams vs Walbert Ureña), 9:38 PM - CIN at SF (Brady Singer vs Landen Roupp), 9:45 PM - CHC at AZ (Clay Holmes vs Brandon Pfaadt), 9:40 PM - COL at WSH (Kyle Freeland vs Andrew Alvarez), 6:45 PM - LAD at ATL (Tyler Glasnow vs Bryce Elder), 7:15 PM - KC at TOR (Seth Lugo vs Max Scherzer), 7:07 PM - MIN at ATH (Taj Bradley vs Gage Jump), 9:40 PM - PHI at SEA (Aaron Nola vs George Kirby), 9:40 PM ## Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres *Paul Skenes (RHP): 73% NRFI, 3.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Michael King (RHP): 88% NRFI, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 5. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Petco Park (15 ft).* Michael King is the reason to look here, a 88% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Paul Skenes is the softer side at 73% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Michael King arrives on a run of 5 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .765 OPS in that split, so Michael King cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. ## Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels *Gavin Williams (RHP): 77% NRFI, 3.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Walbert Ureña (RHP): 90% NRFI, 2.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 10. First pitch 9:38 PM ET at Angel Stadium (160 ft).* Walbert Ureña is the reason to look here, a 90% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Gavin Williams holds up his end too, a 77% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Walbert Ureña arrives on a run of 10 straight scoreless first innings. It helps that the Los Angeles Angels lineup has been quiet against RHP this year at a .650 OPS, which gives Gavin Williams margin in the opening frame. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants *Brady Singer (RHP): 60% NRFI, 4.72 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9. Landen Roupp (RHP): 80% NRFI, 4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 4.3 BB/9. First pitch 9:45 PM ET at Oracle Park (5 ft).* Landen Roupp anchors this one at 80% NRFI, and the combined 58% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Brady Singer is the softer side at 60% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. The pressure point is the San Francisco Giants lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .744 OPS in that split, so Brady Singer cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Honorable Mentions - **Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks:** a combined 58% NRFI rate. - **Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals:** Andrew Alvarez riding a run of 11 scoreless first innings. - **Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves:** a combined 52% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays.** Max Scherzer has not shown the early command to trust, a 4.0 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. Not a first inning to trust. **Minnesota Twins at Athletics.** Taj Bradley is the weak link at 56% NRFI, and the combined 39% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust. **Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners.** George Kirby is the weak link at 63% NRFI, and the combined 43% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-25-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*