# MLB NRFI Picks: August 23, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > No Run First Inning picks for August 23, 2026. 15 games scored for joint first-inning scoreless probability to find tonight's best NRFI spots. **Date:** 2026-08-23 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, August 23, 2026** are SF @ BOS (Score: 77, 77% NRFI probability, Matt Wilkinson vs Jake Bennett), ATH @ HOU (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Brady Basso vs Cristian Javier), STL @ PHI (Score: 63, 63% NRFI probability, Kyle Leahy vs Cristopher Sánchez). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 23, 2026 A slate of 15 games, scored for NRFI value. These are the cleanest first inning spots on the board. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 22](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SF at BOS (Matt Wilkinson vs Jake Bennett), 3:15 PM - ATH at HOU (Brady Basso vs Cristian Javier), 2:10 PM - STL at PHI (Kyle Leahy vs Cristopher Sánchez), 1:35 PM - MIN at SD (Bailey Ober vs Walker Buehler), 4:10 PM - TOR at NYY (José Soriano vs Carlos Rodón), 1:35 PM - NYM at CWS (Nolan McLean vs Sean Newcomb), 2:10 PM - CLE at COL (Foster Griffin vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 3:10 PM - CIN at AZ (Andrew Abbott vs Mitch Bratt), 4:15 PM - DET at KC (Jacob Waguespack vs Daniel Lynch IV), 2:10 PM ## San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox *Matt Wilkinson (LHP): 100% NRFI, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 0.0 K/9, 0.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Jake Bennett (LHP): 100% NRFI, 3.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, NRFI streak of 14. First pitch 3:15 PM ET at Fenway Park (20 ft).* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Matt Wilkinson (100% NRFI) and Jake Bennett (100%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 77% combined rate is the proof. Matt Wilkinson's 0.0 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Boston Red Sox lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .783 OPS in that split, so Matt Wilkinson cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI projects clean here. ## Athletics at Houston Astros *Brady Basso (LHP): 100% NRFI, 3.91 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Cristian Javier (RHP): 86% NRFI, 6.44 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. First pitch 2:10 PM ET at Daikin Park, indoor.* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Brady Basso (100% NRFI) and Cristian Javier (86%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 64% combined rate is the proof. Brady Basso is trending up as well, a 0.00 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.91 season mark. The loose thread is Cristian Javier's 4.2 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies *Kyle Leahy (RHP): 83% NRFI, 3.24 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 10. Cristopher Sánchez (LHP): 81% NRFI, 2.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. First pitch 1:35 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park (20 ft).* Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Kyle Leahy runs a 2.6 BB/9 and Cristopher Sánchez a 2.1 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Cristopher Sánchez holds up his end too, a 81% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Kyle Leahy is trending up as well, a 2.00 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.24 season mark. The pressure point is the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .775 OPS in that split, so Kyle Leahy cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Honorable Mentions - **Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres:** a combined 61% NRFI rate. - **Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees:** José Soriano riding a run of 12 scoreless first innings. - **New York Mets at Chicago White Sox:** Sean Newcomb riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. Leave this one alone. **Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks.** Andrew Abbott has not shown the early command to trust, a 4.3 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. Not a first inning to trust. **Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals.** Jacob Waguespack is the weak link at 0% NRFI, and the combined 47% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-23-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*