# MLB NRFI Picks: August 22, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Best NRFI bets tonight across the MLB slate (15 games). Pitcher first-inning suppression, lineup first-inning offense and venue combined to find the top plays. **Date:** 2026-08-22 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-22-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Saturday, August 22, 2026** are DET @ KC (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Drew Anderson vs Michael Wacha), ATL @ MIL (Score: 62, 62% NRFI probability, Martín Pérez vs Logan Henderson), MIN @ SD (Score: 60, 60% NRFI probability, Dean Kremer vs Casey Mize). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 22, 2026 15 games tonight. Here are the pitching matchups most likely to keep the first inning scoreless. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 21](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-21-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - DET at KC (Drew Anderson vs Michael Wacha), 7:15 PM - ATL at MIL (Martín Pérez vs Logan Henderson), 2:10 PM - MIN at SD (Dean Kremer vs Casey Mize), 8:40 PM - ATH at HOU (Jacob Lopez vs Hunter Brown), 7:10 PM - TB at BAL (Shane McClanahan vs Brandon Young), 7:05 PM - LAA at TEX (Ryan Johnson vs Cody Bradford), 7:05 PM - CLE at COL (Tanner Bibee vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:10 PM - STL at PHI (Andre Pallante vs Andrew Painter), 6:05 PM - CHC at SEA (David Peterson vs Kade Anderson), 7:15 PM ## Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals *Drew Anderson (RHP): 100% NRFI, 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Michael Wacha (RHP): 80% NRFI, 3.58 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9. First pitch 7:15 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium (750 ft).* Drew Anderson can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.3 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Michael Wacha holds up his end too, a 80% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Drew Anderson is trending up as well, a 2.42 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.01 season mark. The pressure point is the Detroit Tigers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .759 OPS in that split, so Michael Wacha cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers *Martín Pérez (LHP): 70% NRFI, 3.15 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9. Logan Henderson (RHP): 92% NRFI, 2.70 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 9. First pitch 2:10 PM ET at American Family Field, indoor.* Logan Henderson can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.7 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Martín Pérez is the softer side at 70% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Logan Henderson's 1.7 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .787 OPS in that split, so Martín Pérez cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres *Dean Kremer (RHP): 50% NRFI, 5.40 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Casey Mize (RHP): 100% NRFI, 3.18 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 19. First pitch 8:40 PM ET at Petco Park (15 ft).* Casey Mize is the reason to look here, a 100% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Dean Kremer is the softer side at 50% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Casey Mize's 2.2 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Minnesota Twins lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .768 OPS in that split, so Casey Mize cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Honorable Mentions - **Athletics at Houston Astros:** Jacob Lopez sitting at 82% NRFI. - **Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles:** Shane McClanahan riding a run of 6 scoreless first innings. - **Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers:** Cody Bradford riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. Not a first inning to trust. **St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies.** Andrew Painter's 6.43 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. We are passing here. **Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners.** Kade Anderson is the weak link at 0% NRFI, and the combined 42% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Leave this one alone. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-22-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*