# MLB NRFI Picks: August 20, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (9 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into a **Date:** 2026-08-20 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-20-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Thursday, August 20, 2026** are NYY @ BAL (Score: 73, 73% NRFI probability, Gerrit Cole vs Kyle Bradish), SF @ CLE (Score: 67, 67% NRFI probability, Landen Roupp vs Gavin Williams), ATH @ KC (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, J.T. Ginn vs Randy Dobnak). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 20, 2026 Tonight's 9 games, ranked by first inning scoreless probability. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 19](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-19-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYY at BAL (Gerrit Cole vs Kyle Bradish), 6:35 PM - SF at CLE (Landen Roupp vs Gavin Williams), 1:10 PM - ATH at KC (J.T. Ginn vs Randy Dobnak), 2:10 PM - TOR at TB (Shane Bieber vs Ian Seymour), 1:10 PM - STL at CIN (Michael McGreevy vs Brady Singer), 12:40 PM - WSH at TEX (Andrew Alvarez vs Jacob deGrom), 8:05 PM - SEA at MIL (George Kirby vs Robert Gasser), 2:10 PM - LAA at HOU (Grayson Rodriguez vs Peter Lambert), 8:10 PM ## New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles *Gerrit Cole (RHP): 80% NRFI, 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. Kyle Bradish (RHP): 92% NRFI, 3.65 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, NRFI streak of 10. First pitch 6:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30 ft).* Kyle Bradish is the reason to look here, a 92% scoreless rate in the first that carries most of the weight for this lean. Gerrit Cole holds up his end too, a 80% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Kyle Bradish arrives on a run of 10 straight scoreless first innings. NRFI projects clean here. ## San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians *Landen Roupp (RHP): 83% NRFI, 4.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 7. Gavin Williams (RHP): 76% NRFI, 3.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. First pitch 1:10 PM ET at Progressive Field (660 ft).* Landen Roupp anchors this one at 83% NRFI, and the combined 67% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Gavin Williams holds up his end too, a 76% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. Landen Roupp arrives on a run of 7 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the San Francisco Giants lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .761 OPS in that split, so Gavin Williams cannot afford a sloppy first. We will take NRFI here, a lean rather than a lock. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Athletics at Kansas City Royals *J.T. Ginn (RHP): 82% NRFI, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Randy Dobnak (RHP): 83% NRFI, 1.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 2:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium (750 ft).* Both arms walk into Kauffman Stadium capable of a clean opening frame, J.T. Ginn at 82% NRFI on the year and Randy Dobnak at 83%, a combined 64% that ranks among the best on the board. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. ## Honorable Mentions - **Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays:** Shane Bieber riding a run of 3 scoreless first innings. - **St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds:** Brady Singer riding a run of 7 scoreless first innings. - **Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers:** Andrew Alvarez riding a run of 10 scoreless first innings. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers.** Robert Gasser is the weak link at 57% NRFI, and the combined 42% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Leave this one alone. **Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros.** Grayson Rodriguez has not shown the early command to trust, a 4.3 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. We are passing here. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-20-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*