# MLB NRFI Picks: August 2, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (15 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into **Date:** 2026-08-02 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-2-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, August 2, 2026** are SF @ SD (Score: 75, 75% NRFI probability, Landen Roupp vs Michael King), PHI @ BAL (Score: 72, 72% NRFI probability, Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Bradish). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 2, 2026 15 games tonight. Here are the pitching matchups most likely to keep the first inning scoreless. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 1](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-1-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SF at SD (Landen Roupp vs Michael King), 4:10 PM - PHI at BAL (Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Bradish), 1:35 PM - PIT at CIN (Mitch Keller vs Chase Burns), 1:40 PM - BOS at LAD (Jake Bennett vs Emmet Sheehan), 7:20 PM - DET at ATH (Keider Montero vs Gage Jump), 4:05 PM - MIL at LAA (Jacob Misiorowski vs Walbert Ureña), 3:15 PM - KC at COL (Seth Lugo vs Kyle Freeland), 3:10 PM - TEX at HOU (Kumar Rocker vs Peter Lambert), 2:10 PM - STL at TOR (Matthew Liberatore vs Max Scherzer), 1:37 PM ## San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres *Landen Roupp (RHP): 71% NRFI, 4.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. Michael King (RHP): 68% NRFI, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 4:10 PM ET at Petco Park (15 ft).* Landen Roupp anchors this one at 71% NRFI, and the combined 75% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. On the other side, Michael King is no pushover either at 68% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Landen Roupp arrives on a run of 3 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the San Francisco Giants lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .749 OPS in that split, so Michael King cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI projects clean here. ## Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles *Zack Wheeler (RHP): 47% NRFI, 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9. Kyle Bradish (RHP): 71% NRFI, 3.74 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9. First pitch 1:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30 ft).* Kyle Bradish anchors this one at 71% NRFI, and the combined 72% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Zack Wheeler is the softer side at 47% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. NRFI projects clean here. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Honorable Mentions - **Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers:** Jake Bennett sitting at 82% NRFI. - **Detroit Tigers at Athletics:** Gage Jump riding a run of 4 scoreless first innings. - **Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels:** a combined 65% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies.** Coors does what Coors does. At 5,200 feet the ball carries, and even the better arm here gives back margin in the first. We are passing here. **Texas Rangers at Houston Astros.** Kumar Rocker has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 17% season rate. This is a spot to skip. **St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays.** Max Scherzer has not shown the early command to trust, a 5.2 BB/9 that invites first inning traffic. We are passing here. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-2-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*