# MLB NRFI Picks: August 14, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for August 14, 2026. 14 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Jake Bennett vs Bubba Chandler leading the board. **Date:** 2026-08-14 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-14-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Friday, August 14, 2026** are BOS @ PIT (Score: 77, 77% NRFI probability, Jake Bennett vs Bubba Chandler), MIA @ CIN (Score: 74, 74% NRFI probability, Sandy Alcantara vs Chase Burns), SD @ CLE (Score: 70, 70% NRFI probability, Michael King vs Gavin Williams). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 14, 2026 The board runs 14 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 13](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-13-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS at PIT (Jake Bennett vs Bubba Chandler), 6:40 PM - MIA at CIN (Sandy Alcantara vs Chase Burns), 6:10 PM - SD at CLE (Michael King vs Gavin Williams), 7:10 PM - AZ at ATL (Brandon Pfaadt vs Chris Sale), 7:15 PM - COL at SF (Kyle Freeland vs Landen Roupp), 10:15 PM - CWS at DET (Sean Newcomb vs Jackson Jobe), 6:40 PM - KC at LAA (Seth Lugo vs Grayson Rodriguez), 9:38 PM - TEX at ATH (Kumar Rocker vs Gage Jump), 9:40 PM - STL at CHC (Matthew Liberatore vs Clay Holmes), 2:20 PM ## Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates *Jake Bennett (LHP): 69% NRFI, 3.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9. Bubba Chandler (RHP): 52% NRFI, 4.26 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at PNC Park (730 ft).* Jake Bennett anchors this one at 69% NRFI, and the combined 77% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Bubba Chandler is the softer side at 52% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Jake Bennett's 1.9 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The loose thread is Bubba Chandler's 4.8 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI projects clean here. ## Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds *Sandy Alcantara (RHP): 68% NRFI, 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. Chase Burns (RHP): 55% NRFI, 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 6:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park (490 ft).* Sandy Alcantara anchors this one at 68% NRFI, and the combined 74% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Chase Burns is the softer side at 55% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Sandy Alcantara is trending up as well, a 1.64 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.52 season mark. It helps that the Cincinnati Reds lineup has been quiet against RHP this year at a .659 OPS, which gives Sandy Alcantara margin in the opening frame. Both arms protect the opening frame, so NRFI is the call. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians *Michael King (RHP): 67% NRFI, 3.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9. Gavin Williams (RHP): 67% NRFI, 3.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 7:10 PM ET at Progressive Field (660 ft).* Michael King anchors this one at 67% NRFI, and the combined 70% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. On the other side, Gavin Williams is no pushover either at 67% NRFI, so this does not lean on one arm alone. Both arms protect the opening frame, so NRFI is the call. ## Honorable Mentions - **Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves:** Chris Sale riding a run of 11 scoreless first innings. - **Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants:** Landen Roupp riding a run of 5 scoreless first innings. - **Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers:** Jackson Jobe sitting at 100% NRFI. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels.** Seth Lugo is the weak link at 50% NRFI, and the combined 35% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. **Texas Rangers at Athletics.** Kumar Rocker is the weak link at 20% NRFI, and the combined 38% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. **St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs.** Matthew Liberatore's 5.15 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-14-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*