# MLB NRFI Picks: August 13, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > Data driven NRFI picks for tonight's MLB slate (9 games). Each starter's first-inning suppression and the opposing lineup's first-inning offense combined into a **Date:** 2026-08-13 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-13-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Thursday, August 13, 2026** are CLE @ DET (Score: 73, 73% NRFI probability, Parker Messick vs Keider Montero), MIL @ LAD (Score: 67, 67% NRFI probability, Shane Drohan vs Roki Sasaki), BOS @ TOR (Score: 52, 52% NRFI probability, Payton Tolle vs Max Scherzer). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 13, 2026 NRFI targets across 9 games, built on pitching matchups, command, and venue. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 12](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-12-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CLE at DET (Parker Messick vs Keider Montero), 1:10 PM - MIL at LAD (Shane Drohan vs Roki Sasaki), 10:10 PM - BOS at TOR (Payton Tolle vs Max Scherzer), 3:07 PM - CIN at CWS (Andrew Abbott vs Davis Martin), 2:10 PM - CHC at WSH (Kevin Gausman vs Cade Cavalli), 4:05 PM - TEX at LAA (Jacob deGrom vs Walbert Ureña), 10:07 PM - PHI at MIN (Aaron Nola vs Taj Bradley), 7:30 PM - SEA at NYY (Logan Gilbert vs Max Fried), 1:35 PM - PIT at MIA (Braxton Ashcraft vs Tyler Phillips), 1:10 PM ## Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers *Parker Messick (LHP): 48% NRFI, 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9. Keider Montero (RHP): 53% NRFI, 3.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. First pitch 1:10 PM ET at Comerica Park (600 ft).* Neither starter hands out early traffic, and in the first inning that is most of the battle. Parker Messick runs a 2.5 BB/9 and Keider Montero a 2.1 BB/9, so a walk is unlikely to spark the run this bet is fading. Parker Messick is the softer side at 48% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Keider Montero's 2.1 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. Both arms protect the opening frame, so NRFI is the call. ## Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers *Shane Drohan (LHP): 69% NRFI, 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. Roki Sasaki (RHP): 65% NRFI, 4.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 10:10 PM ET at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (515 ft).* Shane Drohan anchors this one at 69% NRFI, and the combined 67% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Roki Sasaki holds up his end too, a 65% scoreless rate that only needs to match the moment. The pressure point is the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .817 OPS in that split, so Shane Drohan cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays *Payton Tolle (LHP): 47% NRFI, 3.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. Max Scherzer (RHP): 33% NRFI, 7.25 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. First pitch 3:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre, indoor.* Payton Tolle can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 10.4 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Max Scherzer is the softer side at 33% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. A 1.10 WHIP tells the same story, very little early traffic for the lineup to work with. It helps that the Toronto Blue Jays lineup has been quiet against LHP this year at a .647 OPS, which gives Payton Tolle margin in the opening frame. A thin NRFI lean at best. ## Honorable Mentions - **Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox:** a combined 47% NRFI rate. - **Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals:** a combined 45% NRFI rate. - **Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels:** a combined 45% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins.** Taj Bradley is the weak link at 39% NRFI, and the combined 36% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Leave this one alone. **Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees.** Logan Gilbert is the weak link at 39% NRFI, and the combined 42% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. **Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins.** Tyler Phillips has surrendered a run in the first in 5 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 38% season rate. We are passing here. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-13-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*