# MLB NRFI Picks: August 12, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > No Run First Inning picks for August 12, 2026. 15 games scored for joint first-inning scoreless probability to find tonight's best NRFI spots. **Date:** 2026-08-12 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-12-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Wednesday, August 12, 2026** are BOS @ TOR (Score: 64, 64% NRFI probability, Ranger Suarez vs José Soriano), MIL @ SD (Score: 62, 62% NRFI probability, Dustin May vs Robbie Ray), PIT @ MIA (Score: 61, 61% NRFI probability, Carmen Mlodzinski vs Janson Junk). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 12, 2026 15 games, every starter evaluated. These are tonight's best NRFI plays. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 11](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-11-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS at TOR (Ranger Suarez vs José Soriano), 7:07 PM - MIL at SD (Dustin May vs Robbie Ray), 4:10 PM - PIT at MIA (Carmen Mlodzinski vs Janson Junk), 6:40 PM - PHI at STL (Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Leahy), 2:15 PM - CLE at DET (Foster Griffin vs Framber Valdez), 6:40 PM - SEA at NYY (Bryce Miller vs Will Warren), 7:05 PM - NYM at ATL (Zac Thornton vs Tyler Mahle), 7:15 PM - CHC at WSH (David Peterson vs Jackson Kent), 6:45 PM - BAL at MIN (Shane Baz vs Zebby Matthews), 1:40 PM ## Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays *Ranger Suarez (LHP): 60% NRFI, 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, NRFI streak of 3. José Soriano (RHP): 52% NRFI, 3.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre, indoor.* Ranger Suarez anchors this one at 60% NRFI, and the combined 64% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. José Soriano is the softer side at 52% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Ranger Suarez arrives on a run of 3 straight scoreless first innings. It helps that the Toronto Blue Jays lineup has been quiet against LHP this year at a .646 OPS, which gives Ranger Suarez margin in the opening frame. The loose thread is José Soriano's 4.2 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres *Dustin May (RHP): 59% NRFI, 4.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. Robbie Ray (LHP): 59% NRFI, 3.24 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 4:10 PM ET at Petco Park (15 ft).* Dustin May anchors this one at 59% NRFI, and the combined 62% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Robbie Ray is the softer side at 59% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Dustin May is trending up as well, a 3.46 ERA across his last five starts against a 4.30 season mark. The pressure point is the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which has handled LHP well this year at a .789 OPS in that split, so Robbie Ray cannot afford a sloppy first. The loose thread is Robbie Ray's 4.4 BB/9; an early walk is how this inning gets away. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins *Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP): 60% NRFI, 3.51 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. Janson Junk (RHP): 69% NRFI, 4.63 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, NRFI streak of 5. First pitch 6:40 PM ET at loanDepot park, indoor.* Janson Junk anchors this one at 69% NRFI, and the combined 61% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Carmen Mlodzinski is the softer side at 60% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Janson Junk arrives on a run of 5 straight scoreless first innings. The pressure point is the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .766 OPS in that split, so Janson Junk cannot afford a sloppy first. The lean is NRFI, carried by the stronger arm. ## Honorable Mentions - **Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals:** Kyle Leahy riding a run of 5 scoreless first innings. - **Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers:** a combined 57% NRFI rate. - **Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees:** a combined 56% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **New York Mets at Atlanta Braves.** Zac Thornton has surrendered a run in the first in 3 straight starts, and that trend matters more than the 14% season rate. We are passing here. **Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals.** Jackson Kent is the weak link at 0% NRFI, and the combined 34% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. This is a spot to skip. **Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins.** Zebby Matthews's 5.23 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. We are passing here. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-12-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*