# MLB NRFI Picks: August 10, 2026 (No Run First Inning) > MLB NRFI picks for August 10, 2026. 10 games scored for first inning scoreless probability, with Logan Henderson vs Casey Mize leading the board. **Date:** 2026-08-10 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-10-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, August 10, 2026** are MIL @ SD (Score: 84, 84% NRFI probability, Logan Henderson vs Casey Mize), TB @ ATH (Score: 59, 59% NRFI probability, Freddy Peralta vs Jacob Lopez), NYM @ ATL (Score: 57, 57% NRFI probability, Christian Scott vs Bryce Elder). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's joint-probability NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today: August 10, 2026 The board runs 10 games deep, with several clean first inning matchups tonight. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets for August 9](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-9-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIL at SD (Logan Henderson vs Casey Mize), 9:40 PM - TB at ATH (Freddy Peralta vs Jacob Lopez), 9:40 PM - NYM at ATL (Christian Scott vs Bryce Elder), 7:15 PM - BOS at TOR (Sonny Gray vs Jameson Taillon), 7:07 PM - KC at LAD (Noah Cameron vs Tarik Skubal), 10:10 PM - TEX at LAA (MacKenzie Gore vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM - HOU at SF (Hayden Wesneski vs Blade Tidwell), 9:45 PM - COL at AZ (Gabriel Hughes vs Michael Soroka), 9:40 PM - BAL at MIN (Trevor Rogers vs Dean Kremer), 7:40 PM ## Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres *Logan Henderson (RHP): 80% NRFI, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, NRFI streak of 5. Casey Mize (RHP): 76% NRFI, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, NRFI streak of 2. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Petco Park (15 ft).* This is the kind of matchup NRFI bettors circle. Logan Henderson (80% NRFI) and Casey Mize (76%) both clear the bar comfortably, and the 84% combined rate is the proof. Logan Henderson's 1.8 BB/9 means the leadoff man rarely reaches, and empty bases in the first almost always mean a zero. The pressure point is the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .760 OPS in that split, so Casey Mize cannot afford a sloppy first. NRFI projects clean here. ## Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics *Freddy Peralta (RHP): 52% NRFI, 5.37 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. Jacob Lopez (LHP): 53% NRFI, 5.64 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 5.2 BB/9. First pitch 9:40 PM ET at Sutter Health Park (0 ft).* Jacob Lopez anchors this one at 53% NRFI, and the combined 59% rate keeps the game in play as a lean. Freddy Peralta is the softer side at 52% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Jacob Lopez is trending up as well, a 2.21 ERA across his last five starts against a 5.64 season mark. Worth flagging that Freddy Peralta has been touched for a run in the first in 3 straight, so the season rate is doing the arguing here, not the last month. NRFI is the side, with a touch of caution. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or go deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## New York Mets at Atlanta Braves *Christian Scott (RHP): 69% NRFI, 3.15 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, NRFI streak of 4. Bryce Elder (RHP): 55% NRFI, 3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, NRFI streak of 1. First pitch 7:15 PM ET at Truist Park (1,050 ft).* Christian Scott can end the first inning without the ball ever leaving the infield, missing bats at a 11.2 K/9 clip, and swing and miss is the cleanest path to a scoreless opening frame. Bryce Elder is the softer side at 55% NRFI, but he only has to be ordinary in the first for this to cash. Christian Scott is trending up as well, a 2.58 ERA across his last five starts against a 3.15 season mark. The pressure point is the Atlanta Braves lineup, which has handled RHP well this year at a .758 OPS in that split, so Christian Scott cannot afford a sloppy first. There is a small NRFI edge, nothing more, so size it lightly. ## Honorable Mentions - **Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays:** a combined 56% NRFI rate. - **Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers:** Noah Cameron sitting at 71% NRFI. - **Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels:** a combined 49% NRFI rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups carry the highest first inning scoring risk on tonight's slate. **Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants.** Blade Tidwell is the weak link at 0% NRFI, and the combined 42% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust. **Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks.** Gabriel Hughes is the weak link at 40% NRFI, and the combined 44% rate sits near the bottom of the slate. Not a first inning to trust. **Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins.** Dean Kremer's 5.93 ERA tells the story, vulnerable early and often. Not a first inning to trust. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm the starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). A bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check the weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude, Coors in particular. NRFI bets land 55% to 65% of the time historically, and you need roughly 52.4% to break even at minus 110 odds. For the complete NRFI methodology, including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing, see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi): real time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-10-2026): today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks): pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*