# MLB NRFI Picks Today (April 26, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > Best NRFI bets tonight across a 16-game MLB slate. Pitcher NRFI rates, ERA, streaks, and venue factors combined to surface the top plays. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-04-26 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-26-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Sunday, April 26, 2026** are BOS @ BAL (Score: 76 — 90% combined NRFI rate, Connelly Early vs Kyle Bradish), LAA @ KC (Score: 64 — 70% combined NRFI rate, Reid Detmers vs Seth Lugo), PHI @ ATL (Score: 55 — 60% combined NRFI rate, Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - April 26, 2026 NRFI targets for a 16-game slate - pitching matchups, venue factors, and recent form. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - April 25](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-25-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS @ BAL (Connelly Early vs Kyle Bradish) - 1:35 PM - LAA @ KC (Reid Detmers vs Seth Lugo) - 7:20 PM - PHI @ ATL (Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale) - 1:35 PM - SD @ AZ (Michael King vs Ryne Nelson) - 4:05 PM - MIA @ SF (Max Meyer vs Landen Roupp) - 4:05 PM - SEA @ STL (Emerson Hancock vs Michael McGreevy) - 2:15 PM ## Pick 1: BOS @ BAL — Oriole Park at Camden Yards (30ft) *90% combined NRFI · 1:35 PM ET* - **Connelly Early** (LHP) — 80% NRFI, 2.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, streak +1 - **Kyle Bradish** (RHP) — 100% NRFI, 3.96 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, streak +5 Both arms can pitch a clean first. Connelly Early is at 80% NRFI on the season, Kyle Bradish at 100% — combined 90%, top-tier on the slate. Kyle Bradish has gone NRFI in 5 straight starts. 47°F at first pitch knocks a few feet off any deep contact. ## Pick 2: LAA @ KC — Kauffman Stadium (750ft) *70% combined NRFI · 7:20 PM ET* - **Reid Detmers** (LHP) — 40% NRFI, 4.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, streak -3 - **Seth Lugo** (RHP) — 100% NRFI, 1.15 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, streak +5 Seth Lugo is the anchor here — a 100% NRFI rate that does most of the work for this play. Reid Detmers on the other side is fine at 40%, but it's the elite arm carrying the lean. Seth Lugo has gone NRFI in 5 straight starts. Reid Detmers's 1.08 WHIP means very few first-inning baserunners. Worth flagging: Reid Detmers has allowed a first-inning run in 3 straight. The season profile is good but the recent trend is the opposite. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: PHI @ ATL — Truist Park (1,050ft) *60% combined NRFI · 1:35 PM ET* - **Aaron Nola** (RHP) — 60% NRFI, 5.06 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, streak +3 - **Chris Sale** (LHP) — 60% NRFI, 2.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, streak +2 Aaron Nola is the anchor here — a 60% NRFI rate that does most of the work for this play. Chris Sale on the other side is fine at 60%, but it's the elite arm carrying the lean. Chris Sale's 1.00 WHIP keeps the bases empty early. ## Honorable Mentions - **SD @ AZ** — Michael King riding a 5-game NRFI streak. - **MIA @ SF** — Landen Roupp sitting at 80% NRFI. - **SEA @ STL** — combined 50% rate. ## Games to Avoid These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate: **SEA @ STL** — Skip this one: 50% combined NRFI rate, with Emerson Hancock the obvious weak link at 40%. **MIA @ SF** — Max Meyer's 20% NRFI rate is the weak link here. Combined with Landen Roupp on the other side, this game has too many ways to score in the first. **SD @ AZ** — Ryne Nelson has allowed a first-inning run in 4 straight starts. The trend matters more than the season 20% rate, and tonight is not the spot to fade it. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-26-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*