# MLB NRFI Picks Today (April 13, 2026) - Best No Run First Inning Bets > Data-driven NRFI picks for tonight's 10-game MLB slate. Pitching matchups, venue conditions, and weather scored across 8 factors to find the best scoreless firs **Date:** 2026-04-13 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** NRFI, MLB, First Inning, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, No Run First Inning **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-13-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB NRFI (No Run First Inning) picks for Monday, April 13, 2026** are CLE @ STL (Score: 64 — 67% combined NRFI rate, Gavin Williams vs Matthew Liberatore), CHC @ PHI (Score: 61 — 50% combined NRFI rate, Javier Assad vs Cristopher Sánchez), BOS @ MIN (Score: 52 — 50% combined NRFI rate, Garrett Crochet vs Bailey Ober). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 8-factor NRFI scoring model, updated daily. # MLB NRFI Picks Today - April 13, 2026 NRFI targets for a 10-game slate - pitching matchups, venue factors, and recent form. > [NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - live pitcher data, updated as starters confirm. > **Yesterday's NRFI picks:** [MLB NRFI Bets - April 12](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-12-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CLE @ STL (Gavin Williams vs Matthew Liberatore) - 7:45 PM - CHC @ PHI (Javier Assad vs Cristopher Sánchez) - 6:40 PM - BOS @ MIN (Garrett Crochet vs Bailey Ober) - 7:40 PM - MIA @ ATL (Eury Pérez vs Grant Holmes) - 7:15 PM - AZ @ BAL (Ryne Nelson vs TBD) - 6:35 PM - TEX @ ATH (Nathan Eovaldi vs Luis Severino) - 9:40 PM - NYM @ LAD (David Peterson vs Justin Wrobleski) - 10:10 PM - HOU @ SEA (Mike Burrows vs George Kirby) - 4:10 PM - LAA @ NYY (Yusei Kikuchi vs Will Warren) - 7:05 PM ## Pick 1: CLE @ STL - Busch Stadium (455ft) Combined NRFI: 67% | 7:45 PM ET **CLE vs STL** - **Gavin Williams** (RHP) - NRFI: 2-1 (67%), Streak: +2, ERA: 2.04, WHIP: 1.08, L5 ERA: 2.09 - **Matthew Liberatore** (LHP) - NRFI: 2-1 (67%), Streak: -1, ERA: 3.38, WHIP: 1.50, L5 ERA: 3.38 Gavin Williams and Matthew Liberatore carry a 67% combined scoreless first-inning rate across 6 starts. Gavin Williams owns a 67% NRFI rate in 3 starts — his season ERA of 2.04 supports first-inning dominance — and his 1.08 WHIP means few baserunners reach to begin with. On the other side, Matthew Liberatore sits at 67% NRFI across 3 starts — his 1.50 WHIP creates some baserunner risk — and a strong 3.38 season ERA. ## Pick 2: CHC @ PHI - Citizens Bank Park (20ft) Combined NRFI: 50% | 6:40 PM ET **CHC vs PHI** - **Javier Assad** (RHP) - NRFI: 1-0 (100%), Streak: +1, ERA: 0.00, WHIP: 0.53, L5 ERA: 0.00 - **Cristopher Sánchez** (LHP) - NRFI: 0-3 (0%), Streak: -3, ERA: 1.65, WHIP: 1.35, L5 ERA: 1.68 Javier Assad and Cristopher Sánchez carry a 50% combined scoreless first-inning rate across 4 starts. Javier Assad owns a 100% NRFI rate in 1 starts — his season ERA of 0.00 supports first-inning dominance — and his 0.53 WHIP means few baserunners reach to begin with. On the other side, Cristopher Sánchez sits at 0% NRFI across 3 starts — his 1.35 WHIP creates some baserunner risk — and a strong 1.65 season ERA. One flag: Cristopher Sánchez has allowed a first-inning run in 3 straight starts. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi). ## Pick 3: BOS @ MIN - Target Field (815ft) Combined NRFI: 50% | 7:40 PM ET **BOS vs MIN** - **Garrett Crochet** (LHP) - NRFI: 2-1 (67%), Streak: +1, ERA: 3.12, WHIP: 1.04, L5 ERA: 3.16 - **Bailey Ober** (RHP) - NRFI: 1-2 (33%), Streak: -2, ERA: 5.27, WHIP: 1.24, L5 ERA: 5.45 Garrett Crochet and Bailey Ober carry a 50% combined scoreless first-inning rate across 6 starts. Garrett Crochet owns a 67% NRFI rate in 3 starts — his season ERA of 3.12 supports first-inning dominance — and his 1.04 WHIP means few baserunners reach to begin with. On the other side, Bailey Ober sits at 33% NRFI across 3 starts — though his 5.27 season ERA is a concern beyond the first. At Target Field: cool 56°F conditions slightly favor pitchers, high humidity (90%) suppresses ball flight. ## Honorable Mentions - **MIA @ ATL** - Eury Pérez (33% NRFI) vs Grant Holmes (67% NRFI), Combined: 50% - **AZ @ BAL** - Ryne Nelson (33% NRFI) vs TBD (TBD NRFI), Combined: 41.5% - **TEX @ ATH** - Nathan Eovaldi (33% NRFI) vs Luis Severino (67% NRFI), Combined: 50% ## Games to Avoid These matchups have the highest first-inning scoring risk on tonight's slate: **NYM @ LAD** — David Peterson (33% NRFI) vs Justin Wrobleski (0% NRFI) gives a 16.5% combined rate — one of the weakest on the board. Justin Wrobleski's 0% NRFI rate across 1 starts means he gives up a first-inning run more often than not. **HOU @ SEA** — Mike Burrows (33% NRFI) vs George Kirby (0% NRFI) gives a 16.5% combined rate — one of the weakest on the board. George Kirby's 0% NRFI rate across 3 starts means he gives up a first-inning run more often than not. George Kirby has allowed a first-inning run in 3 straight starts. **LAA @ NYY** — Yusei Kikuchi (33% NRFI) vs Will Warren (33% NRFI) gives a 33% combined rate — one of the weakest on the board. Will Warren's 33% NRFI rate across 3 starts means he gives up a first-inning run more often than not. ## Related Guides - [How to Use the NRFI Dashboard](/blog/how-to-use-nrfi-dashboard) - [MLB Weather Betting Guide](/blog/mlb-weather-betting-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Confirm starting pitchers on the [NRFI dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - a bullpen game kills NRFI value immediately. Check weather at first pitch and be careful at altitude (Coors in particular). NRFI bets land at 55-65% historically; you need ~52.4% to break even at -110. For the complete NRFI methodology - including pitcher evaluation, venue factors, and bankroll sizing - see the [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Live NRFI Dashboard](/mlb/nrfi) - real-time pitcher data and matchup grades - [Dinger of the Day](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-13-2026) - today's best HR picks - [MLB Streaks](/mlb/streaks) - pitchers and hitters on hot streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - full methodology breakdown *Picks update as starters confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB NRFI Picks](/blog/stream/mlb-nrfi-picks) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*