Today's best MLB batter vs pitcher matchup picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026 are Zack Gelof (Score: 84, 0.571 AVG, 1.857 OPS in 7 career AB vs George Kirby), Yainer Diaz (Score: 77, 0.600 AVG, 1.667 OPS in 5 career AB vs Brandon Pfaadt), Jackson Chourio (Score: 74, 0.375 AVG, 1.670 OPS in 8 career AB vs Andrew Abbott). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's five factor career H2H scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: September 5, 2026
101 career matchups scored, 15 games. Here's where history favors the hitter.
Hitters to Watch Today
- Zack Gelof: .571 AVG & 1.857 OPS with 1 HR in 7 AB vs. George Kirby
- Yainer Diaz: .600 AVG & 1.667 OPS with 0 HR in 5 AB vs. Brandon Pfaadt
- Jackson Chourio: .375 AVG & 1.670 OPS with 2 HR in 8 AB vs. Andrew Abbott | 2+ Hits (+158)
- Kyle Teel: .714 AVG & 1.571 OPS with 0 HR in 7 AB vs. Taj Bradley
- Wilyer Abreu: .500 AVG & 1.556 OPS with 2 HR in 16 AB vs. Chris Bassitt | 1+ Hit (minus 213)
- Bryan De La Cruz: .667 AVG & 1.500 OPS with 0 HR in 6 AB vs. Martín Pérez
Yesterday's H2H matchups: MLB H2H Matchups: September 4
Tonight's Slate
| Matchup | Pitchers | Time |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants at New York Mets | Anthony Molina vs Zac Thornton | 4:10 PM ET |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins | Javier Assad vs Ryan Gusto | 4:10 PM ET |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies | Martín Pérez vs Zack Wheeler | 6:05 PM ET |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians | Framber Valdez vs Parker Messick | 6:10 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates | Yusei Kikuchi vs Braxton Ashcraft | 6:40 PM ET |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds | Dustin May vs Andrew Abbott | 6:40 PM ET |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles | Sonny Gray vs Chris Bassitt | 7:05 PM ET |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers | Drew Rasmussen vs Jacob deGrom | 7:05 PM ET |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals | Max Scherzer vs Seth Lugo | 7:10 PM ET |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox | Taj Bradley vs Anthony Kay | 7:10 PM ET |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros | Brandon Pfaadt vs Ethan Pecko | 7:15 PM ET |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padres | Carlos Rodón vs Robbie Ray | 7:15 PM ET |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies | Matthew Liberatore vs Mason Adams | 8:10 PM ET |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers | Cade Cavalli vs Tyler Glasnow | 9:10 PM ET |
| Athletics at Seattle Mariners | Jeffrey Springs vs George Kirby | 9:40 PM ET |
1. Zack Gelof (ATH) vs George Kirby (RHP)
0.571 AVG, 1.857 OPS in 7 career AB | T-Mobile Park
Career: 4-for-7 · .571 · 1 HR · 3 XBH · 1.857 OPS · 1 K
When OPS hits 1.857 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Gelof is 4-for-7 against Kirby with the kind of contact that drives runs.
Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 7 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace.
Verdict: give me Gelof every time he steps in against Kirby. I want him in my lineup tonight.
2. Yainer Diaz (HOU) vs Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
0.600 AVG, 1.667 OPS in 5 career AB | Daikin Park
Career: 3-for-5 · .600 · 2 XBH · 1.667 OPS · 1 BB
Diaz is 3-for-5 (.600) lifetime against Pfaadt. He sees this pitcher well and the at bats keep coming back as hits.
Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive.
Bottom line: Diaz owns this matchup against Pfaadt. I want him in my lineup tonight.
3. Jackson Chourio (MIL) vs Andrew Abbott (LHP)
0.375 AVG, 1.670 OPS in 8 career AB | Great American Ball Park | 2+ Hits (+158)
Career: 3-for-8 · .375 · 2 HR · 2 XBH · 1.670 OPS · 1 K · 3 BB
When OPS hits 1.670 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Chourio is 3-for-8 against Abbott with the kind of contact that drives runs.
Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 4 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Only 1 strikeout in 8 AB shows the eye is dialed in here.
The take is simple. History sides hard with Chourio here. I'm on his hit prop tonight.
Look up any pitcher vs batter career history on the Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard.
4. Kyle Teel (CWS) vs Taj Bradley (RHP)
0.714 AVG, 1.571 OPS in 7 career AB | Rate Field
Career: 5-for-7 · .714 · 1 XBH · 1.571 OPS
When OPS hits 1.571 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Teel is 5-for-7 against Bradley with the kind of contact that drives runs.
Small sample, but the dominance is notable.
When the sample says this much, you trust it. Teel has Bradley's number. I want him in my lineup tonight.
5. Wilyer Abreu (BOS) vs Chris Bassitt (RHP)
0.500 AVG, 1.556 OPS in 16 career AB | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | 1+ Hit (minus 213)
Career: 8-for-16 · .500 · 2 HR · 4 XBH · 1.556 OPS · 3 K · 2 BB
When OPS hits 1.556 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Abreu is 8-for-16 against Bassitt with the kind of contact that drives runs.
Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. A home run every 8 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. 4 extra base hits in 16 AB. When he connects, the ball gets out of the infield in a hurry.
Bottom line: Abreu owns this matchup against Bassitt. I'm on his hit prop tonight.
6. Bryan De La Cruz (PHI) vs Martín Pérez (LHP)
0.667 AVG, 1.500 OPS in 6 career AB | Citizens Bank Park
Career: 4-for-6 · .667 · 1 XBH · 1.500 OPS · 1 K
When OPS hits 1.500 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Cruz is 4-for-6 against Pérez with the kind of contact that drives runs.
Small sample, but the dominance is notable. Played at Citizens Bank Park, a plus environment for hitters.
The take is simple. History sides hard with Cruz here. I want him in my lineup tonight.
7. Hunter Goodman (COL) vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
0.400 AVG, 1.400 OPS in 5 career AB | Coors Field
Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.400 OPS · 1 K
Goodman is 2-for-5 (.400) lifetime against Liberatore. He sees this pitcher well and the at bats keep coming back as hits.
Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Played at Coors Field, which amplifies any offensive edge.
Bottom line: Goodman owns this matchup against Liberatore. I want him in my lineup tonight.
8. Pete Alonso (BAL) vs Sonny Gray (RHP)
0.364 AVG, 1.326 OPS in 11 career AB | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | 1+ Hit (minus 191)
Career: 4-for-11 · .364 · 2 HR · 2 XBH · 1.326 OPS · 2 K · 1 BB
Alonso's slash line against Gray translates to a 1.326 OPS over 11 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play.
Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. A home run every 6 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (minus 191).
Verdict: give me Alonso every time he steps in against Gray. I'm on his hit prop tonight.
Hit Props to Consider
- Jackson Chourio 2+ Hits (+158): 0.375 career AVG vs Andrew Abbott (8 AB). Implied: 39%.
- Wilyer Abreu 1+ Hit (minus 213): 0.500 career AVG vs Chris Bassitt (16 AB). Implied: 68%.
- Pete Alonso 1+ Hit (minus 191): 0.364 career AVG vs Sonny Gray (11 AB). Implied: 66%.
Lines via Draftkings. Always shop for the best number. Confirm starting pitcher before betting.
Related Guides
Find More Matchups
These are today's top career advantages, but every game has matchups worth looking into. Check out the Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard to search any batter vs pitcher career history, view full lineup matchups, and explore Statcast data for every game on the slate.
Always confirm lineups and starting pitchers before placing any bets. A different arm on the mound changes the entire matchup profile, and career sample size matters. Matchups with 10 or more at bats carry significantly more weight than those with only five or six.
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Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
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