# MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: October 7, 2026 > Who owns their matchup tonight? 4 games analyzed through career H2H batting average, OPS, and strikeout rate. Trent Grisham tops the board. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-10-07 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Batter vs Pitcher, H2H Matchups, MLB Props, Daily Picks, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-oct-7-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB batter vs pitcher matchup picks for Wednesday, October 7, 2026** are Trent Grisham (Score: 84, 0.667 AVG, 1.917 OPS in 6 career AB vs Nick Martinez), Austin Wells (Score: 81, 0.400 AVG, 2.000 OPS in 5 career AB vs Nick Martinez), Ben Rice (Score: 59, 0.444 AVG, 1.323 OPS in 9 career AB vs Nick Martinez). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's five factor career H2H scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: October 7, 2026 44 career matchups scored, 4 games. Here's where history favors the hitter. ## Hitters to Watch Today - **Trent Grisham**: .667 AVG & 1.917 OPS with 0 HR in 6 AB vs. Nick Martinez | 1+ Hit (minus 142) - **Austin Wells**: .400 AVG & 2.000 OPS with 2 HR in 5 AB vs. Nick Martinez | 1+ Hit (minus 127) - **Ben Rice**: .444 AVG & 1.323 OPS with 0 HR in 9 AB vs. Nick Martinez | 1+ Hit (minus 222) - **Will Smith**: .300 AVG & 1.064 OPS with 1 HR in 10 AB vs. Tyler Mahle | 1+ Hit (minus 199) - **Freddie Freeman**: .421 AVG & 1.132 OPS with 1 HR in 19 AB vs. Tyler Mahle | 1+ Hit (minus 186) - **Jake Bauers**: .200 AVG & 1.000 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Walker Buehler | 1+ Hit (minus 168) > **Yesterday's H2H matchups:** [MLB H2H Matchups: October 6](/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-oct-6-2026) ## Tonight's Slate | Matchup | Pitchers | Time | |---------|----------|------| | Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox | Daniel Espino vs Sean Newcomb | 4:00 PM ET | | Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves | Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Mahle | 6:00 PM ET | | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | Nick Martinez vs Max Fried | 8:00 PM ET | | Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres | TBD vs Walker Buehler | 10:00 PM ET | ## 1. Trent Grisham (NYY) vs Nick Martinez (RHP) 0.667 AVG, 1.917 OPS in 6 career AB | Yankee Stadium | **1+ Hit (minus 142)** *Career: 4-for-6 · .667 · 3 XBH · 1.917 OPS · 2 BB* When OPS hits 1.917 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Grisham is 4-for-6 against Martinez with the kind of contact that drives runs. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. Played at Yankee Stadium, with its short right field porch. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (minus 142). The take is simple. History sides hard with Grisham here. I'm on his hit prop tonight. ## 2. Austin Wells (NYY) vs Nick Martinez (RHP) 0.400 AVG, 2.000 OPS in 5 career AB | Yankee Stadium | **1+ Hit (minus 127)** *Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 2 HR · 2 XBH · 2.000 OPS · 1 K* Wells owns Martinez when it comes to power: 2 home runs in 5 career at bats. That is not a stat to ignore. It is the case for tonight. Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive. The 2.000 career OPS against this pitcher backs up the rest. Played at Yankee Stadium, with its short right field porch. Bottom line: Wells owns this matchup against Martinez. I'm on his hit prop tonight. ## 3. Ben Rice (NYY) vs Nick Martinez (RHP) 0.444 AVG, 1.323 OPS in 9 career AB | Yankee Stadium | **1+ Hit (minus 222)** *Career: 4-for-9 · .444 · 3 XBH · 1.323 OPS · 1 K · 2 BB* A 1.323 career OPS against a single pitcher is rare, and Rice owns it against Martinez across 9 at bats. That is run producing dominance, not noise. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. Only 1 strikeout in 9 AB shows the eye is dialed in here. 3 extra base hits in 9 AB. When he connects, the ball gets out of the infield in a hurry. When the sample says this much, you trust it. Rice has Martinez's number. I'm on his hit prop tonight. > Look up any pitcher vs batter career history on the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## 4. Will Smith (LAD) vs Tyler Mahle (RHP) 0.300 AVG, 1.064 OPS in 10 career AB | Truist Park | **1+ Hit (minus 199)** *Career: 3-for-10 · .300 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 1.064 OPS · 1 BB* Smith has not struck out once in 10 career at bats against Mahle. The barrel always finds the ball in this matchup. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 10 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. The 1.064 career OPS against this pitcher backs up the rest. Verdict: give me Smith every time he steps in against Mahle. I'm on his hit prop tonight. ## 5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) vs Tyler Mahle (RHP) 0.421 AVG, 1.132 OPS in 19 career AB | Truist Park | **1+ Hit (minus 186)** *Career: 8-for-19 · .421 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 1.132 OPS · 3 K · 3 BB* Freeman's slash line against Mahle translates to a 1.132 OPS over 19 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play. Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. 3 walks in 19 AB show he reads this arm well even when he is not swinging. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (minus 186). Verdict: give me Freeman every time he steps in against Mahle. I'm on his hit prop tonight. ## 6. Jake Bauers (MIL) vs Walker Buehler (RHP) 0.200 AVG, 1.000 OPS in 5 career AB | Petco Park | **1+ Hit (minus 168)** *Career: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.000 OPS · 1 K* Bauers is 1-for-5 (.200) lifetime against Buehler. He sees this pitcher well and the at bats keep coming back as hits. Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (minus 168). Verdict: give me Bauers every time he steps in against Buehler. I'm on his hit prop tonight. ## 7. Taylor Walls (TB) vs Max Fried (LHP) 0.400 AVG, 0.900 OPS in 10 career AB | Yankee Stadium | **1+ Hit (+117)** *Career: 4-for-10 · .400 · 1 XBH · 0.900 OPS · 1 K* Walls is 4-for-10 (.400) lifetime against Fried. He sees this pitcher well and the at bats keep coming back as hits. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. Only 1 strikeout in 10 AB shows the eye is dialed in here. Played at Yankee Stadium, with its short right field porch. Bottom line: Walls owns this matchup against Fried. I'm on his hit prop tonight. ## 8. Rowdy Tellez (ATL) vs Tyler Glasnow (RHP) 0.263 AVG, 0.947 OPS in 19 career AB | Truist Park *Career: 5-for-19 · .263 · 2 HR · 4 XBH · 0.947 OPS · 5 K* When Tellez connects against Glasnow, the ball travels: 4 extra base hits in 19 career at bats. Quality of contact in this matchup is the story. Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. A home run every 10 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. The 0.947 career OPS against this pitcher backs up the rest. Bottom line: Tellez owns this matchup against Glasnow. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## Hit Props to Consider - **Trent Grisham 1+ Hit (minus 142)**: 0.667 career AVG vs Nick Martinez (6 AB). Implied: 59%. - **Austin Wells 1+ Hit (minus 127)**: 0.400 career AVG vs Nick Martinez (5 AB). Implied: 56%. - **Ben Rice 1+ Hit (minus 222)**: 0.444 career AVG vs Nick Martinez (9 AB). Implied: 69%. - **Will Smith 1+ Hit (minus 199)**: 0.300 career AVG vs Tyler Mahle (10 AB). Implied: 67%. - **Freddie Freeman 1+ Hit (minus 186)**: 0.421 career AVG vs Tyler Mahle (19 AB). Implied: 65%. - **Jake Bauers 1+ Hit (minus 168)**: 0.200 career AVG vs Walker Buehler (5 AB). Implied: 63%. - **Taylor Walls 1+ Hit (+117)**: 0.400 career AVG vs Max Fried (10 AB). Implied: 46%. *Lines via Draftkings. Always shop for the best number. Confirm starting pitcher before betting.* ## Related Guides - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Find More Matchups These are today's top career advantages, but every game has matchups worth looking into. Check out the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) to search any batter vs pitcher career history, view full lineup matchups, and explore Statcast data for every game on the slate. Always confirm lineups and starting pitchers before placing any bets. A different arm on the mound changes the entire matchup profile, and career sample size matters. Matchups with 10 or more at bats carry significantly more weight than those with only five or six. [Dinger of the Day Picks](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-oct-7-2026) | [NRFI Picks](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-oct-7-2026) | [Top Plays](/top-plays) *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB H2H Matchup Previews](/blog/stream/mlb-h2h-matchups) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*