# MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: October 3, 2026 > Who owns their matchup tonight? 4 games analyzed through career H2H batting average, OPS, and strikeout rate. Randal Grichuk tops the board. **Date:** 2026-10-03 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Batter vs Pitcher, H2H Matchups, MLB Props, Daily Picks, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-oct-3-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB batter vs pitcher matchup picks for Saturday, October 3, 2026** are Randal Grichuk (Score: 80, 0.417 AVG, 1.167 OPS in 12 career AB vs Parker Messick), Braden Montgomery (Score: 75, 0.333 AVG, 1.333 OPS in 6 career AB vs Parker Messick), Trent Grisham (Score: 64, 0.375 AVG, 0.938 OPS in 16 career AB vs Drew Rasmussen). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's five factor career H2H scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: October 3, 2026 Every qualified batter pitcher matchup scored across 5 factors. 28 matchups, 4 games. Here are the plays. ## Hitters to Watch Today - **Randal Grichuk**: .417 AVG & 1.167 OPS with 0 HR in 12 AB vs. Parker Messick - **Braden Montgomery**: .333 AVG & 1.333 OPS with 1 HR in 6 AB vs. Parker Messick - **Trent Grisham**: .375 AVG & 0.938 OPS with 1 HR in 16 AB vs. Drew Rasmussen - **Yandy Díaz**: .340 AVG & 0.909 OPS with 2 HR in 50 AB vs. Gerrit Cole - **Cedric Mullins**: .316 AVG & 0.816 OPS with 2 HR in 38 AB vs. Gerrit Cole - **Miguel Andujar**: .400 AVG & 0.800 OPS with 0 HR in 5 AB vs. Jacob Misiorowski > **Yesterday's H2H matchups:** MLB H2H Matchups: October 2 ## Tonight's Slate | Matchup | Pitchers | Time | |---------|----------|------| | Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians | TBD vs Parker Messick | 1:00 PM ET | | Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers | TBD vs TBD | 4:00 PM ET | | New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays | Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen | 6:30 PM ET | | San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers | TBD vs Jacob Misiorowski | 8:30 PM ET | ## 1. Randal Grichuk (CWS) vs Parker Messick (LHP) 0.417 AVG, 1.167 OPS in 12 career AB | Progressive Field *Career: 5-for-12 · .417 · 3 XBH · 1.167 OPS · 1 K* When OPS hits 1.167 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Grichuk is 5-for-12 against Messick with the kind of contact that drives runs. Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. Only 1 strikeout in 12 AB shows the eye is dialed in here. 3 extra base hits in 12 AB. When he connects, the ball gets out of the infield in a hurry. The take is simple. History sides hard with Grichuk here. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 2. Braden Montgomery (CWS) vs Parker Messick (LHP) 0.333 AVG, 1.333 OPS in 6 career AB | Progressive Field *Career: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.333 OPS · 4 K · 2 BB* Montgomery's slash line against Messick translates to a 1.333 OPS over 6 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. When the sample says this much, you trust it. Montgomery has Messick's number. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 3. Trent Grisham (NYY) vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP) 0.375 AVG, 0.938 OPS in 16 career AB | Tropicana Field *Career: 6-for-16 · .375 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 0.938 OPS · 4 K* .375 is a real number when it holds up over 16 at bats. Grisham sees something against Rasmussen that other hitters do not. Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. When the sample says this much, you trust it. Grisham has Rasmussen's number. I want him in my lineup tonight. > Look up any pitcher vs batter career history on the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## 4. Yandy Díaz (TB) vs Gerrit Cole (RHP) 0.340 AVG, 0.909 OPS in 50 career AB | Tropicana Field *Career: 17-for-50 · .340 · 2 HR · 5 XBH · 0.909 OPS · 10 K · 4 BB* 5 XBH in 50 AB tells you what kind of contact Díaz makes when he sees Cole. Loud, not soft. Large career sample, high confidence matchup data. 4 walks in 50 AB show he reads this arm well even when he is not swinging. The 0.909 career OPS against this pitcher backs up the rest. When the sample says this much, you trust it. Díaz has Cole's number. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 5. Cedric Mullins (TB) vs Gerrit Cole (RHP) 0.316 AVG, 0.816 OPS in 38 career AB | Tropicana Field *Career: 12-for-38 · .316 · 2 HR · 3 XBH · 0.816 OPS · 7 K* When Mullins connects against Cole, the ball travels: 3 extra base hits in 38 career at bats. Quality of contact in this matchup is the story. Solid sample size, and this is a reliable edge. Bottom line: Mullins owns this matchup against Cole. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 6. Miguel Andujar (SD) vs Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) 0.400 AVG, 0.800 OPS in 5 career AB | American Family Field *Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0.800 OPS · 1 K* Career batting average against Misiorowski: .400 in 5 AB. Andujar has the kind of pitch recognition on this arm that does not show up against the rest of the league. Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive. The take is simple. History sides hard with Andujar here. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 7. Austin Wells (NYY) vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP) 0.125 AVG, 0.722 OPS in 8 career AB | Tropicana Field *Career: 1-for-8 · .125 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 0.722 OPS · 1 K · 1 BB* Tiny sample (8 AB) and a .125 average — contact-wise, Rasmussen has owned this matchup. The only bright spot is a home run in the sample, which inflates the OPS to .722. This is a raw-power look, not a contact advantage. Treat it as speculative and size accordingly. ## 8. Chandler Simpson (TB) vs Gerrit Cole (RHP) 0.333 AVG, 0.666 OPS in 6 career AB | Tropicana Field *Career: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0.666 OPS* Six at-bats and a .333 average is the kind of thing you note but don't overweight. The OPS of .666 is below the league average line, so this is a contact sample without much extra-base damage. Directional at best. Confirm lineup and treat this as a flier, not a core play. ## Related Guides - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Find More Matchups These are today's top career advantages, but every game has matchups worth looking into. Check out the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) to search any batter vs pitcher career history, view full lineup matchups, and explore Statcast data for every game on the slate. Always confirm lineups and starting pitchers before placing any bets. A different arm on the mound changes the entire matchup profile, and career sample size matters. Matchups with 10 or more at bats carry significantly more weight than those with only five or six. [Dinger of the Day Picks](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-oct-3-2026) | [NRFI Picks](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-oct-3-2026) | [Top Plays](/top-plays) *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB H2H Matchup Previews](/blog/stream/mlb-h2h-matchups) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*